martin191919

JTWC升22S

martin191919

MFR升TD


GFS也預料可能轉溫

t02436

MFR編號15R
強度方面不是很看好...

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/15/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  15
2.A POSITION 2014/04/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 79.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE:  SE: 280 SW:  NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/04 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/04/05 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/04/05 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/04/06 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/04/06 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/04/07 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 88.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/08 06 UTC: 36.4 S / 95.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2014/04/09 06 UTC: 42.9 S / 107.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

============
補個TCFA圖

martin191919

TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
83.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A
040010Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 T0 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011

結構看起來有明顯改善
底層看得出來有在建立起來的趨勢了
JTWC稍早升評 Medium
不過數值方面 GFS 不是很看好它未來的發展




THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 86.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 83.1E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH
ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADIENTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 T0 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

martin191919

JTWC : REMAINS LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 72.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF TURNING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 72.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UNDEFINED LLCC. A 010836Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
VERY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

甜心

南印度洋中間這隻大低壓終於編號嚕96s之前在莫海21s還一般低氣壓時人家就曾在ITCZ(雲團)討論區發表過關係它的帖子沒想到真的編號升評為Low了，目前看來螺旋形態已經建立除結構還有點鬆散外其他方面都還ok。