t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 78.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 78.1E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. A 052145Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVING
BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE, OVERALL, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SLIGHTLY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

補圖

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 78.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE, ALBEIT DISORGANIZED, DEEP
CONVECTION. A 051023Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN OVERALL
DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
WITH STRONG MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.