t02436

NHC升評High

1.A low pressure area located about 300 miles south-southeast of
Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become better defined during the day.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for
development...and a tropical depression will likely form during the
next few days while the low drifts northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rains over
portions of western Central America and southeastern Mexico this
coming week, causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

目前對流底層都較先前衰弱不少…

krichard2011

GFS 大致支持發展
不過預測發展後立即撞進墨西哥南部
底層還有待加強 不過稍早從底層掃瞄來看
東方 91W 附近的那隻似乎比96W定位的這隻還要有組織

甜心

93E低氣壓在東北太平洋上空誕生嚕，不過可是...它也太大隻了吧這麼大一陀後續要整合時間可想而知要多久了...。

you

t02436

補個NHC評級
昨天開始就評Low
今天升Medium
五日預報給High

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
conducive for continued development of this system during the next
few days as it drifts northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent