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02E.Boris 中心登陸對流消散

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    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2014-5-31 11:18

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:21 編輯   熱帶風暴   編號:02 E   名稱:Boris   基本資料     擾動編號日期:2014 年 05 月 31 日 10 時 ...

Meow 發表於 2014-6-4 01:58
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-6-4 02:02 編輯

緊急升格為熱帶風暴鮑里斯(Tropical Storm Boris)

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 031754
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

...BORIS POISES A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE RISK FOR
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 94.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ MEXICO TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST.  BORIS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BORIS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

PUERTO CHIAPAS MEXICO HAS ALREADY REPORTED 3.78 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
BORIS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...BORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. BORIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN
GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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krichard2011 發表於 2014-6-3 23:22
已目前他這個樣子...
我覺得連登陸前命名的機會都偏低
不過GFS似乎預測 有機會進入墨西哥灣
但是不是同一個系統 我也不太確定...


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jwpk9899 發表於 2014-6-3 05:24
升格02E
由於靠近陸地 強度不是很看好
但也不能排除近岸爆發的可能

INIT  02/2100Z 13.1N  94.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 13.5N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 14.0N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 14.5N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 15.0N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 15.3N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 15.6N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 16.0N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

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jwpk9899 發表於 2014-6-2 17:08
今天LLCC附近的對流終於有好轉一些了
不過整體還是有點鬆散
老J發布TCFA囉(晚點看看NHC有沒有啥反應)

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you 發表於 2014-6-2 12:40

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