martin191919

  熱帶風暴  
    編號：04 E
    名稱  : Douglas


  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 06 月 28 日 03  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 06 月 30 日 08  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 07 月 06 日 13  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：      40     kts  (  TS  )
    海平面最低氣壓          ：   1001   百帕
  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
96E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-13N-101.3W



以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

martin191919

由TD升TS，再由TS降格TD，又由TD升格TS，現在終於再降格為TD
NHC發出Final Warning
另附DOUGLAS的生路歷程



20140628 2100Z 14.5N 105.8W 030KT 1006MB TD
20140629 0300Z 14.6N 107.4W 030KT 1006MB
20140629 0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 030KT 1006MB
20140629 1500Z 16.4N 110.3W 030KT 1005MB
20140629 2100Z 16.5N 111.9W 030KT 1005MB
20140630 0300Z 16.4N 113.0W 035KT 1003MB TS
20140630 0900Z 16.6N 113.1W 035KT 1003MB
20140630 1500Z 17.4N 114.0W 035KT 1003MB
20140630 2100Z 17.7N 114.5W 035KT 1003MB
20140701 0300Z 18.4N 114.9W 040KT 1000MB
20140701 0900Z 18.8N 115.3W 040KT 1001MB
20140701 1500Z 19.1N 115.9W 035KT 1002MB
20140701 2100Z 19.2N 115.9W 040KT 1001MB
20140702 0300Z 19.4N 115.7W 040KT 1001MB
20140702 0900Z 19.6N 116.0W 040KT 1001MB
20140702 1500Z 19.7N 116.0W 040KT 1002MB
20140702 2100Z 20.0N 116.2W 035KT 1004MB
20140703 0300Z 20.2N 116.3W 035KT 1004MB
20140703 0900Z 20.4N 116.5W 035KT 1004MB
20140703 1500Z 20.6N 116.6W 035KT 1004MB
20140703 2100Z 20.6N 116.8W 030KT 1006MB TD
20140704 0300Z 20.9N 117.1W 030KT 1006MB
20140704 0900Z 21.3N 117.5W 035KT 1006MB TS
20140704 1500Z 21.6N 118.1W 035KT 1006MB
20140704 2100Z 21.8N 118.6W 035KT 1006MB
20140705 0300Z 22.4N 119.1W 035KT 1006MB
20140705 0900Z 23.1N 119.6W 030KT 1008MB TD
20140705 1500Z 23.7N 120.1W 030KT 1008MB POST-TC

甜心

04E‧Dauglas  風暴目前的環境還不錯北方有強大東太平洋高壓跟北美大陸高壓接連未來是乎路徑比較偏西，不過它西方的海域目前是有點乾空氣一直偏西後期不是非常理想。

t02436

正式命名Douglas = =
強度上望50KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 16.4N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 17.0N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 17.9N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 18.4N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 18.6N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 18.8N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.8N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

t02436

NHC修正12Z的ATCF

認為12Z已經達到命名標準

EP, 04, 2014062912,   , BEST,   0, 162N, 1097W,  35, 1005, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  250,  80,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FOUR, M,

本身環流廣闊
整合就需耗費不少時間




周圍風切中偏弱
但前方乾區可能就是未來發展的重要關鍵了= =

t02436

NHC升格TD並上望50KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 14.5N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W   40 KT  45MPH

目前對流還是呈現鬆散狀態
底層也有待發展

martin191919

TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 103.5W TO 16.6N 111.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
281430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
104.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14.0N 104.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 281346Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

martin191919

NHC : 60%



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually becoming better
defined, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.