01C.Wali 環境惡劣高低層分離

t02436 · 2014-7-15 08:12

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-29 11:48 編輯

  熱帶風暴

  編號　：01 C ( 90 E → 90 C )
  名稱：Wali

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 15 日 07 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 07 月 18 日 06 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 07 月 19 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
中太平洋颶風中心 (CPHC)： 40    kts  ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓                ：1001 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
90E.INVEST-20kts-1007mb-12N-123.9W

90C.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-11.3N-140.3W

以上資料來自 : NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-7-15 08:18

之前一直評級Low
現在提升為Medium

1. An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii has become better defined over the past
several hours. Further development of this system is possible over
the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific Basin on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

未來將持續西移
會進入中太CPHC責任區

krichard2011 · 2014-7-17 07:55

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-7-17 08:32 編輯

已證實此擾為原90E重新編號過後的
此帖將併入90E
NRL居然會改編號 @@ 我是第一次看過...
So... 這該算是中太首擾嗎?@@
基本資料
編號　　　：90 C
擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 17 日 06 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 00 月 00 日
　登陸地點　　：暫無
90C.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-11.3N-140.3W

CX723-A330 · 2014-7-17 08:13

這根本就是原來的90E
不算是新擾吧...

t02436 · 2014-7-18 00:01

CPHC從Low直接提升到High

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has been moving west northwest at less than 10 mph. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance has become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression may be forming. Advisories may be initiated later today for this system if current trends continue. After 24 to 36 hours, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent.

JTWC也在稍早發出TCFA

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 140.7W TO 15.2N 145.9W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171131Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 141.5W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9N 141.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF
DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 171059Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATES THE FORMATIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS
THE ISLANDS OF HAWAII AS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

整體對流大幅度改善
螺旋性明顯
成為中太首旋機率相當高...

t02436 · 2014-7-18 02:30

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-7-18 02:34 編輯

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression One-C, located about 1300 miles east southeast of Honolulu.

CPHC將在三小時之後發布01C熱帶低壓首報

krichard2011 · 2014-7-18 08:02

稍早CPHP升格命名 Wali 目前40KT
不過CPHP官網還沒有更新

t02436 · 2014-7-18 09:02

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-7-18 09:36 編輯

上望50KT
目標朝向夏威夷

不看好跨洋

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2200Z 12.8N 140.8W 40 KT  45 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 13.6N 141.6W 45 KT  50 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 14.9N 143.0W 50 KT  60 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 40 KT  45 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 17.2N 146.1W 30 KT  35 MPH
72H  20/1800Z 18.4N 150.1W 25 KT  30 MPH
96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED