krichard2011

對流大致覆蓋在LLCC上方
算是個滿小的系統
目前除南北風切偏強 所在環境風切大致不強
只要能穩定向西移動 發展機會應該是不低
目前風速也來到30KT稍後NHC應該有機會升格熱低

howard2639

JTWC已對其發佈TCFA了~

t02436

NHC提升評級至High
同時展望中提到五日內將有機會出現大量擾動

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized this evening.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and this system is expected to become a tropical depression during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward into the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some development of
this system is expected over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Yet another area of low pressure could form during the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

對流較先前改善 有稍微擁有螺旋性

CX723-A330

提高評級至medium
預料5日後會是high

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure located about 1125 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization
during the past several hours.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

t02436

昨天下午評級Low

1. A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.