t02436

00Z速報給出100KT
MH(C3)達陣
現在差0.9個經度就會進入西太

EP, 07, 2014080700,   , BEST,   0, 137N, 1791W, 100,  965, HU,  64, NEQ,   40,   20,    20,   30, 1006,  220,  40,   0,    0,   E,   0,    ,   0,    0,  GENEVIEVE, D,

底層相當扎實

高層眼持續清空當中

ADT持續飆升中
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 951.6mb/109.8kt     
               Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                  5.8     6.1     6.4

krichard2011

早上起來果然有驚喜 結構相當漂亮
只差風眼還有待清空 清空完之後應該就很完美了
下午直接以中颱跨進來 應該是完全沒有問題了
T值也爆衝6.0 不排除下一報美軍有機會直接給 115 KT
如果順利的話 當地入夜對流引爆 CDG還給他建立起來
不排除連125KT以上都可以給她挑戰一下
要是這樣的話也不排除再挑戰強颱直接跨洋
當然這是很樂觀的想法 純欣賞用的無害颱就算強一點也沒有關係
可以大自然藝術的角度來欣賞這個系統 @@

asus5635

美軍最新一報上看115kts


CPHC的預測路徑又稍微調整了

Meow

底層風眼驚為天人！CPHC 已上望三級颱風（100 節），但可能還不止。

Meow

JMA 發佈風速 85 節的 SW！（暗示明天 18Z 的強度）另外 CPHC 給了 75 節。



WWJP25 RJTD 061800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 85 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 16N 175E 19N 175E 19N 180E 16N 180E 16N 175E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 85 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 175E 16N 175E 16N 180E 13N 180E 13N 175E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
...
REMARKS.
...
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING(WTPA22 PHFO).

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

259012

我不知道它有多強
可是它如果持續待在海面上又加上溫度高會持續的一直增強
這不是廢話

krichard2011

GFS 預測在北轉的途中
將有一個冷渦從北方分離出來 像西南移動
此時這系統位在這冷渦東南側 有利於這系統高層流出
相當利於這系統發展
我覺得強度可能不只CPHC所預測的95KT
說不定會有什麼驚喜出現
路徑上大致會是一個無害旋 可以欣賞角度來觀察這個準颱風

Meow

CPHC 上望二級颱風上限。



WTPA42 PHFO 061444
TCDCP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

GENEVIEVE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT APPEARING NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA ALSO DEPICT WELL ORGANIZED
BANDING ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 06/1200Z
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATE DECREASED TO ONLY 6 KT...
WHILE CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASED TO 4.0 FROM
PHFO/SAB...AND 3.5 FROM JTWC. UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
HOVERING NEAR 4.3/72 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GENEVIEVE
WILL BE DESIGNATED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...290/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTH FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS
GENEVIEVE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INDICATED AFTER 72
HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOTION
THEREAFTER...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH GENEVIEVE NOW A HURRICANE...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS WARM SSTS AROUND 29C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS CYCLE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AT ALL TIME PERIODS THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND
NOW PEAKS OUT AT 95 KT FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT BELOW THE IVCN CONSENSUS.
ON DAYS 4 AND 5...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW.

GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 12.8N 176.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 13.7N 178.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 14.9N 178.6E   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 16.3N 176.3E   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 17.7N 174.8E   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 21.5N 173.8E   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 27.5N 173.0E   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 34.0N 172.0E   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON