Uh.. 雖然是實測
但這個結構真的讓我很懷疑
這真的值70KT嗎 = =
結構真是糟到一個不行...
會有這麼強的風
個人推測可能是與東方的高壓產生的的氣壓梯度所造成的

看起來不怎麼樣，可是 NHC 已升格 Bertha 為一級颶風。





000
WTNT43 KNHC 041439
TCDAT3

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

In spite of its unimpressive appearance on satellite imagery, with
scant evidence of banding features and relatively disorganized deep
convection, aerial reconnaissance data indicate that Bertha has
intensified into a hurricane.  Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMR
winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes support an
intensity of 70 kt for this advisory.  Bertha does have well-defined
anticyclonic upper-level outflow over the eastern and southern
portions of the circulation.  Recent infrared imagery shows warming
cloud tops, so the intensity is probably leveling off.  Dynamical
guidance predicts a very large increase in shear beginning in 24-36
hours, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin around that time.
In about 72 hours, the global models show the cyclone interacting
with a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Newfoundland, so the NHC
forecast shows Bertha becoming extratropical by that time.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
motion is now 360/15 kt.  The track forecast remains relatively
straightforward.  Over the next couple of days, Bertha should turn
toward the northeast and accelerate in the flow between a
mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the southwestern Atlantic and a
broad trough moving off the United States east coast.  Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone should continue moving quickly to the
northeast or east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies.
The official forecast track is not much different from the previous
one, and close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 27.6N  73.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 30.0N  73.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 33.4N  72.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 36.3N  69.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 39.0N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 45.0N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  08/1200Z 49.0N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 49.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

目前從色調強化來看
對流還算集中 NHC預測從美國外海通過
強度上看 Cat.1



INIT  04/0300Z 24.9N  73.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 27.3N  73.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 30.8N  73.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 34.1N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 36.9N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 42.2N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 47.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 49.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NHC持續維持HIGH
目前這系統似乎成現裸奔狀態
似乎暫時受到風切影響
估計要走到西經50度附近應該才會有比較好一點的發展
不過附近的乾空氣還是一大考驗 = =

整個大西洋乾得不得了
這系統的對流都幾乎消散了 = =
不過GFS數值還是看好未來成旋
NHC 持續維持HIGH 70%

NHC升評Medium
五天生成機率高達70%
樣子大致上還算不錯
GFS支持發展


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Shower activity has increased and become a little
better organized during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this disturbance over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.