t02436

  四級颶風  
  編號：09 E
  名稱：Iselle

  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 31 日 06  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 08 月 01 日 05  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 09 日 16  時
　登陸地點　　：美國 夏威夷州 夏威夷島      
  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
　  國家颶風中心 (NHC)　  　： 120    kts  (   CAT.4   )
　  中太平洋颶風中心 (CPHC)：  95     kts  (   CAT.2   )
　  海平面最低氣壓　　　　   ： 947  百帕

  過去路徑圖  



  討論帖圖片  
95E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-10.5N-118.5W


以上資料來自 : NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

身在夏威夷就要用夏威夷語來感謝。:lol

WTPA43 PHFO 090234
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
ISELLE. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONICALLY
ROTATING SHOWERY CLOUDS...AND SEVERAL SMALLER CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
EDDIES THAT ARE GENERATED BY THE STRONG FLOW CHANNELLED BETWEEN THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE KAUAI RADAR INDICATES 40 KT VELOCITIES NEAR
THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER AT ABOUT 8000 FEET...AND THE LAST
RECONNAISSANCE PASS INDICATED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS REMAIN AT 850 MB IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED
TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ISELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN.

BIG MAHALOS TO THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
AND THE NOAA G-IV PERSONNEL FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND LONG HOURS
PROVIDING US EXTREMELY VALUABLE DATA IN OUR ANALYSES FOR ISELLE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 20.0N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 20.4N 161.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 20.7N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 20.9N 165.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  11/0000Z 21.2N 168.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

t02436

中心直穿大島
現在應該出海了


整體潰散非常快速
不在看好後續強度
預計72小時候消散

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 19.3N 156.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
12H  09/0000Z 19.7N 158.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 20.3N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  10/0000Z 20.8N 162.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  10/1200Z 21.4N 165.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

以下轉自icyclone 臉書
認為是有紀錄以來襲擊大島的最強颶風

ISELLE didn't make it to Hawai'i's Big Island as a hurricane-- but with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), it was still the strongest known tropical cyclone to hit that island. This radar shot, from just before landfall, shows ISELLE making a final push before crossing the coast. Hilo escaped the worst, with the brunt of the storm passing S of the city.

krichard2011

差不多快登陸了目前最大陣風出現在Kealakomo
51KT 還在上升中

t02436

已經逐漸移入夏威夷雷達範圍中
雖說結構已經趨於潰散
但仍可能以TS上限-C1下限直衝大島而去




稍晚即將登陸

t02436

預計20小時以內就有機會登陸夏威夷
警報已經發布

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 18.5N 150.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 19.1N 152.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 19.8N 155.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
36H  09/0000Z 20.5N 158.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 21.0N 161.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  10/1200Z 22.5N 165.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  11/1200Z 24.4N 171.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 27.0N 177.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

之前受到乾空氣影響削弱了不少
最近北側又有爆出一些對流
預測後期路徑上將遭逢強勁風切而逐漸減弱

CX723-A330

krichard2011

僅管結構受到乾空氣的破壞導致對流略為減弱
不過風眼仍保持的相當完好
因此CPHC認為將以一級颶風等級登陸夏威夷 @@
甚至會不會成為第二個由東太跨入西太的系統 也很難說
但相較於Genevieve 這隻比她還要要困難的多
除了要穿過一大片的乾空氣之外 還要捱過前方的強風切區
環境對Iselle相當不利
成為第二隻西太的東太貨 機會恐怕不大 = =