身在夏威夷就要用夏威夷語來感謝。:lol

WTPA43 PHFO 090234
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
ISELLE. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONICALLY
ROTATING SHOWERY CLOUDS...AND SEVERAL SMALLER CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
EDDIES THAT ARE GENERATED BY THE STRONG FLOW CHANNELLED BETWEEN THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE KAUAI RADAR INDICATES 40 KT VELOCITIES NEAR
THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER AT ABOUT 8000 FEET...AND THE LAST
RECONNAISSANCE PASS INDICATED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS REMAIN AT 850 MB IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED
TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ISELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN.

BIG MAHALOS TO THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
AND THE NOAA G-IV PERSONNEL FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND LONG HOURS
PROVIDING US EXTREMELY VALUABLE DATA IN OUR ANALYSES FOR ISELLE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 20.0N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 20.4N 161.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 20.7N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 20.9N 165.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  11/0000Z 21.2N 168.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

差不多快登陸了目前最大陣風出現在Kealakomo
51KT 還在上升中

僅管結構受到乾空氣的破壞導致對流略為減弱
不過風眼仍保持的相當完好
因此CPHC認為將以一級颶風等級登陸夏威夷 @@
甚至會不會成為第二個由東太跨入西太的系統 也很難說
但相較於Genevieve 這隻比她還要要困難的多
除了要穿過一大片的乾空氣之外 還要捱過前方的強風切區
環境對Iselle相當不利
成為第二隻西太的東太貨 機會恐怕不大 = =