krichard2011

疑似底層正在建立當中
底層對流有疑似旋轉起來的趨勢
各數值大致支持增強至 Cat.1以上的強度
不過結構方面還需要一段時間去整合

shadow16

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
620 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 MPH...75 KM/H WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.


SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



命名Cristobal

Meow

NHC 編為熱帶低氣壓四號（TD Four），預測在巴哈馬成為颶風。





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 21.8N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 22.9N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 24.0N  74.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 24.6N  74.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 25.0N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  26/1800Z 26.5N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  27/1800Z 29.0N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 32.0N  76.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

shadow16

已經80%了
螺旋性也有在
看看晚點會不會升格

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite and surface data indicate that the area of disturbed
weather near Hispaniola still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation.  However, thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization and environmental conditions are favorable
for the development of a tropical depression or storm today or
Sunday.  This system is forecast to move west-northwestward over or
near the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central
Bahamas on Sunday.  Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.  Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Central
Bahamas through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning.
Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahama Islands
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical
storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance
notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

t02436

krichard2011 發表於 2014-8-22 12:07
NHC 評HIGH 60%
午天預測有80% 相當高
不過目前結構仍相當鬆散還有待整合

其實今天早上就有第一次實測~
下面補充資料~



NHC從18Z就給出35KT
認為七級暴風圈有30NM

AL, 96, 2014082118,   , BEST,   0, 164N,  577W,  35, 1009, DB,  34, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,    0, 1012,   75,  30,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 96, 2014082200,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  594W,  35, 1009, DB,  34, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,    0, 1011,   75,  30,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,

美國海軍也發布TCFA
只是結構相當鬆散= =




SSD分析T1.0

TXNT27 KNES 220011
TCSNTL
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)
B.  21/2345Z
C.  17.8N
D.  59.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-E

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH LT 0.2 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 0. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...RAMIREZ

krichard2011

NHC 評HIGH 60%
午天預測有80% 相當高
不過目前結構仍相當鬆散還有待整合
美軍預計將於當地時間明天下午派飛機過去調查

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.