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98W 高緯冷渦轉暖

查看數: 5945 評論數: 4 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2014-8-24 22:39

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-27 00:01 編輯   基本資料          編號    :98 W     擾動編號日期:2014 年 08 月 25 日 08  時  消散日期 ...

Meow 發表於 2014-8-26 03:06
JTWC 的 Long 女士分析為「副熱帶擾動」。:o

TPPN10 PGTW 251811
A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF JAPAN)
B. 25/1732Z
C. 33.2N
D. 155.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. ST1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. ANALYSIS USING THE
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD YIELDS AN ST OF 1.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1346Z 33.1N 154.5E GPMI
25/1523Z 33.3N 154.9E ATMS
LONG
t02436 發表於 2014-8-26 00:05
JTWC評級LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 33.5N 154.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS BEEN QUICKLY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A
RECENT 251107Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE
CIRCULATION AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. BASED ON THE ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKING QUICKLY INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND
A LACK OF MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.




JMA維持溫帶氣旋
LOW 1008 HPA AT 32N 154E ENE 10 KT


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形態其實夠了,SSD 還分析到 T1.5  發表於 2014-8-26 00:42
t02436 發表於 2014-8-25 08:50
JTWC剛剛編號98W
98W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-31.8N-151.2E

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這隻擾動低壓寶寶目前的緯度好像有點太高了,未來如果真的依照日本氣象廳的預測朝東北移動的化那真的不怎麼好發展說。  發表於 2014-8-25 18:38
J18
現在看起來是高偉環境比低緯來的好些!  發表於 2014-8-25 10:08
緯度太高 應該沒機會了...  發表於 2014-8-25 09:54
比玉兔還好…  發表於 2014-8-25 09:44
這隻應該不會再成長了,緯度太高.  發表於 2014-8-25 09:02

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