NHC 認為已經消散

登陸了
降格為TD

Tropical Depression DOLLY

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
700 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

...DOLLY WEAKENING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 98.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

最大風速 45 節了，可是還未達到巔峰，等會就登陸。







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 23.4N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NHC 升評至HIGH 60%
不過整體對流仍相當鬆散還有待整合...

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.