14W 中心登陸逐漸減弱

愚輝 · 2014-9-6 12:50

HKO亦發了 TCFA: '華南地區普遍天晴。另一方面，現時影響南海中部的低壓區正在增強，一個熱帶氣旋似乎在形成中。'

blackcat · 2014-9-6 12:19

相較於91W
90W的LLCC明顯了許多
個人認為90W先命名的機會較高

t02436 · 2014-9-6 09:29

JMA搶先發出GW
WTPQ20 RJTD 060000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 060000UTC 15.3N 117.3E POOR

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 070000UTC 16.5N 115.0E 120NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =

熱帯低気圧
平成26年09月06日10時15分発表
<06日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域南シナ海
中心位置北緯 15度20分(15.3度)
東経 117度20分(117.3度)
進行方向、速さ西北西ゆっくり
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<07日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 16度30分(16.5度)
東経 115度00分(115.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

t02436 · 2014-9-6 09:13

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-6 09:14 編輯

服部武藏發表於 2014-9-6 08:57
熱帶性低氣壓１００２百帕，在北緯１５度，東經１１７度，即在南海，向西北移動，時速１５公里。

CWB編為 ...

JMA 18Z 已經升格TD~
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 117E WEST SLOWLY.

只是目前對流還很散.....

JTWC升Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
118.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE, CONVECTIVE
BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS WELL-
DEFINED IN A 051357Z ASCAT PASS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP, PERSISTENT, CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

服部武藏 · 2014-9-6 08:57

熱帶性低氣壓１００２百帕，在北緯１５度，東經１１７度，即在南海，向西北移動，時速１５公里。

CWB編為熱帶低壓了@@....

啊呀不知道後續狀況為何呢

t02436 · 2014-9-5 14:15

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-5 14:19 編輯

再度評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 118.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT
FORMATIVE, CONVECTION DISPLACED WESTWARD. THE LLCC IS WELL-DFFINED
IN A 050201Z ASCAT PASS WITH 05-10 KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE RIM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER THE SAME EASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.