krichard2011

我認為這隻被率先升格的機會比90W還大
且這隻結構也似乎不錯 雖然兩個都長得不怎麼樣
不過GFS以經連好幾次預測這個系統會在日本南方附近發展
可能是個高緯颱...
但是我還是不太希望風神這個名子被 90W 或 91W 拿走 = =

t02436

昨天晚上的TCFA是誤發
今天02Z正式發出

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N
127.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING OF THE LLCC TO THE
SOUTHEAST BUT DUE TO THE FLARING CONVECTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE POSITIONING AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INDICATES A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE LLCC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTING A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

JMA發布Warning
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.5N 115.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 22.6N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

shadow16

TCFA

3952

Meow

JMA 已經先在 09Z 升格它為熱低。

t02436

再度重回Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 041808Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS AND 041235Z ASCAT PASS INFERS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
ACTUALLY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF WHERE IT PREVIOUSLY WAS POSITIONED.  
WHILE NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT, BASED ON
ASCAT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE
15-20 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE FUELING THE DEEP
CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JTWC重新分析T1.0

TPPN11 PGTW 042133
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (N OF PALAU)
B. 04/2032Z
C. 17.2N
D. 129.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/21HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AGREES; PT WAS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   04/1747Z  17.5N  131.1E  MMHS
   LONG

t02436

JTWC再降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A 040129Z ASCAT PASS AND
JTWC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OF WEAK (05-15
KNOT) WINDS IN THE AREA, BUT NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS TURNING IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE
CIMSS ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD
CHANNEL. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS
ALOFT ARE HELPING TO FUEL THE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

JTWC跟SSD分析都找不到LLCC

TXPQ27 KNES 040314
TCSWNP
CCA

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)  
B.  04/0232Z
C.  11.8N
D.  130.9E
E.  FIVE/MTSAT  
F.  TOO WEAK

G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF  
DISCERNIBLE CLOSED LLCC.  POSITION IS BASED ON MIX OF CLOUD  SYSTEM
CENTER ALONG A SHEAR AXIS.  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS A  
T1.0 IS WARRANTED.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL  

...LIDDICK  
=======================================================
TPPN11 PGTW  040315
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (N OF PALAU)
B. 04/0232Z
C. XX.X  
D. XXX.X
E. N/A/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS:  POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD  NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   03/2301Z  13.5N   133.7E  SSMS
   04/0041Z  13.4N  134.0E  MMHS
   LONG