1415 海鷗持續西進深入內陸逐漸減弱中

krichard2011 · 2014-9-10 22:40

目前型態看起來已經相當良好
底層似乎已經開始建立當中
對流也明顯爆發...

t02436 · 2014-9-10 22:12

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-10 22:13 編輯

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
144.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 101124Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AROUND THE CENTER AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP ALSO SHOW A 2 MB PRESSURE DROP OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE TIME FRAME OF DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE SLIGHT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

目前對流增強相當猛烈

甜心 · 2014-9-10 16:03

本帖最後由甜心於 2014-9-11 13:14 編輯

94w擾動低壓它的體型還滿巨大的說，雖然整合勢必相當吃力但未來兩天發展成熱低壓或低氣壓的機會是有的。

由下列最新東亞雲圖已經可以看到它的模樣了雖然很邊緣，目前太平洋高壓強度不算太強剛好是中等強度且依然盤據在臺灣東方海面上短時間內它將持續引導94w低壓向西北西方向緩慢移動。

t02436 · 2014-9-10 14:03

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-10 22:16 編輯

評級LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N 144.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A
BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT
100403Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS AREA REMAINS POOR WHILE THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE HAS YET TO
CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GFS IS AGGRESSIVELY
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.