HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014
CORRECTED STATUS FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS
Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall
of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a
radius of about 25 n mi. This broadening of the inner-core wind
field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the
uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt. This is
somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land
shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract
and complete the eyewall replacement cycle. Weakening is expected
to commence by early Monday. The amount of weakening over the next
several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the
Baja California Peninsula. On the latest NHC forecast track, the
center is expected to remain over land for much of the period.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower
than the previous one.
The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier
today. Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
...ODILE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
