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果不其然，JTWC 發佈了 TCFA。
WTPN21 PGTW 221900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 148.1E TO 17.5N 147.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 148.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 200NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF CONVECTION, WHILE EXTREMELY BROAD,
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. A 221632Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOWS VERY FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVER ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS WITH THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATING OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231900Z.//
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