1418 巴逢轉化後加速東北移動

krichard2011 · 2014-9-27 19:41

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-9-27 19:43 編輯

沒有錯的話 EC這報出現的低壓系統
可能就是99W 至少初始場經緯度是大致穩合的
做成動畫比較方便觀察...

blackcat · 2014-9-27 10:45

99W 雖然TCFA
雲圖上來看其實環流蠻小的
對流則是都集中在西側要整合不容易
未來行徑路線強度又可能遇到強風切阻礙
要升格可能還需要一段時間

而GFS跟EC預測也顯示不一樣的結果先看看就好

Meow · 2014-9-27 10:26

00Z 仍舊是陋噗蚋穴誒狸呃:dizzy:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 165E WNW SLOWLY.

pcstar · 2014-9-27 07:30

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-27 09:09 編輯

一覺醒來已經TCFA了，應該很快有機會升格18W

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FLARING IN NATURE WHILE SOME BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDING CAN BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. A
261923Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. A 260958Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS BEING OFFSET BY WIDELY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.

Meow · 2014-9-27 02:23

好像已經開始旋轉了，進展相當快，頗接近 TD 水平。

就連 JTWC 也分析到 T1.5，很快就要 TCFA 甚至 18W 了。

TPPN11 PGTW 261816

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SW OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 26/1732Z

C. 5.7N

D. 165.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1222Z  6.7N  167.0E  TRMM
26/1526Z  5.6N  166.1E  MMHS
26/1544Z  5.7N  166.0E  SSMI

CHAPPOTIN

Meow · 2014-9-27 01:41

JTWC 一下就提升評級到 Medium，看來 JMA 很快就要升格 TD 了。

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 166.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 261222Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. A 260958Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE
KWAJALEIN RADAR LOOP DOES NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT ANY TURNING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DIVERGENT EASTERLY AND SLIGHT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, PROVIDING OVERALL EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SUSTAINING THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

Meow · 2014-9-27 01:30

之前在中國颱風論壇得知，北緯 5 到 10 度次表層（100 米）海水偏涼是赤道潛流所致，今年 8 月那樣的溫度接近平均值，反而 2013 年 11 月赤道潛流異常微弱，該海域次表層極端偏暖，帛琉附近當時甚至較平均值高了 5 度以上。

既然那海域次表層偏涼是正常的，那就不能當作 99W 發展的變數，不過也因此沒機會達到海燕那樣的強度。更多內容可參考中國颱風論壇：http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.p ... p;fid=79&page=2