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krichard2011|2014-10-20 01:10
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-10-20 01:11 編輯
底層眼牆大致已經成形了
現在結構算是相當不錯
CPHC甚至認為北上之後有機會達到二次巔峰
不過整體環境算是偏差的 高層西風過強
導致高層雲系被往東邊吹離 從紅外線衛星雲圖也大致可以看得出來
以目前的情況下 發展是暫時受到限制的
要看風切的問題能不能獲得改善...
WTPA45 PHFO 191512
TCDCP5
HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014
DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...ANALYZED AS BEING BETWEEN 30 AND
40 KT...ANA HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE INNER
CORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RECENT DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CORROBORATE WHAT IS SEEN IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...THAT THE PERSISTENT SHEAR MAY BE HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT 70 KT...AS THESE TRENDS
MAY BE ONLY TEMPORARY...AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 1221 UTC
WERE 73 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/04 KT INDICATES THE FORWARD
MOTION HAS EASED...WITH THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE WEST
UNDERWAY. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVOLUTION...AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD NEARLY DUE WEST THIS MORNING...
KEEPING THE CENTER FROM DIRECTLY IMPACTING KAUAI COUNTY.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT TO ABOUT 105
MILES ON THE NORTH SIDE REQUIRES A CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI COUNTY. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST ALSO
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...AND AN EXPANSION OF
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. THE RIDGE SHUNTING ANA WESTWARD WILL MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANA ROUNDING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS TURN IS RESULTING IN A WIDE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT LONGER TIME RANGES. THE LATEST FORECAST
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM...THEN
RUNS ALONG THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE LONGER
RANGES...AND SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HWRF/GFDL WHICH ARE
ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...AND THE ECMWF...WHICH IS ON
THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT
DECREASING SHEAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALLOW ANA TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER THAT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS 30N. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TRENDS
PRESENTED BY LGEM AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT IS WEAKER THAN THE IVCN
CONSENSUS WHICH CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN UPWARD BY THE HWRF/GFDL
MODELS WHICH DEPICT A STRONGER CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 20.6N 159.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.1N 161.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.4N 162.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.8N 164.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 22.9N 166.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 24.6N 168.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 169.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 30.0N 169.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
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