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Meow|2014-11-17 02:56
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顯示全部樓層
命名 Adjiali,仍上望熱帶氣旋上限,有構建雲捲風眼跡象。
WTIO30 FMEE 161836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 66.7 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/17 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/17 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2014/11/18 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/11/21 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVE THE LAST HOURS WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ORGAN
IZED IN CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTRE (TEMPORARY HOT SPOT).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MONSO
ON SIDE (AND IMPROVING ON THE "WEAK" SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW S
HEAR NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD OR NEAR
LY EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEYOND THAT TIME, A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW
ER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
另外美軍也升到熱帶風暴編號 01S,直接評價最大風速 40 節。
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