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Meow|2014-11-16 21:03
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本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-11-16 21:05 編輯
MFR 很看好發展，已分析 CI2.5，距離命名不遠了，上望最大風速 80 節的熱帶氣旋。
WTIO30 FMEE 161235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2014/11/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6 S / 66.7 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/17 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/17 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/11/18 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/11/18 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/11/19 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/11/19 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/20 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/11/21 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
SINCE 08Z, THE SYSTEM SHOW EVIDENT SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION THA
T WRAPS AROUND THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTER. PRESSURE DATA FROM BUOY 14040 WAS USEFUL TO ESTIMAT
E THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE E
STIMATE (PGTW AT 1.5 AND SAB AT 2.5 AT 1130Z) ... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM BECOME A TRO
PICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MONSO
ON SIDE (AND IMPROVING ON THE "WEAK" SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW S
HEAR NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD OR NEAR
LY EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND WITH A GENESIS PROCESS COMPLETED RIGHT N
OW, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS IN THIS PACKAGE AND NOW IS CLOSE TO THE ALADI
N-REUNION FORECAST.
BEYOND THAT TIME, A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONT
AIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR, AS A FIRST REASON OF WEAKENING,
IS NOW EXCLUDED REGARDS TO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.
JTWC 也發布了 TCFA，雖然是有點晚。
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
66.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 66.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AS INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
161008 AMSU-B MICROWAVE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH OFFSETS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE LEVEL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. |
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