受到強風切的影響
發展方面受到了很大的阻礙
發展方面應該有一定困難
稍早JTWC也取消了 TCFA 並降評為Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
158.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 157.8W, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
SHEARED EASTWARD OF A NOW UNRAVELING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 260513Z 91H SSMIS
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN
AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO
BELOW 26 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

貌似是CCC

天阿..這隻如果命名..那還真是個紀錄.

不曾見過東南太平洋有熱帶氣旋

JTWC評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4S 160.2E(W),
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING
WHILE FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE STARTED TO BUILD IN. A 230343Z
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY
CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

槽性明顯


FMS展望中表示未來兩天內發展機率為中等

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 23/0207 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTER [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 160.7W
AT 230000UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.


OVERALL ORGANISATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP
LAYER MEAN WIND. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 230800UTC.

這或許就是為什麼老j定位定在那裡的原因
整體對流 其實並沒有在螺旋中心 疑似裸露
渦度雖然泛白 而對流卻在渦度以東
也可能是這個系統過於鬆散
有多LLCC的情形發生

美國早就撤編 93P，但斐濟仍維持並認為這兩天發展機會達到中至高，GFS 也認為會發展。

MODERATE TO HIGH
WWPS21 NFFN 220900 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 22/0959 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTER [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S 162.7W
AT 220600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOOR BASED ON GOES IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION IS POOR. CONVECTION IS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFULENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND EAST OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTION FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.