周子堯@FB

基本資料   
編號　　　　：94 S
擾動編號日期：2017 年 01 月 03 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2017 年 01 月 07 日 00 時
94S INVEST.15kts-NAmb-13.8S-130.7E

s6815711

評級直接提升至Medium

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S
130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022159Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
PASS REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE DARWIN RADAR INDICATES THE LLCC HAS
NEARLY MOVED OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF OF BONAPARTE. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW MSLP VALUES IN THE AREA, WITH A MINIMUM NEAR
998 MB, AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IF THE LLCC
REMAINS OVER THE WARM COASTAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A DEVELOPING LLCC TO THE COAST AND
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.