開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

04S.Carlos 進入高緯 逐漸轉化

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-1-31 05:56 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-2-13 12:01 編輯

  熱帶氣旋  
編號:04-20162017 ( 04 S )
名稱:Carlos

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 01 31 03
JTWC升格日期:2017 02 04 20
命名日期  :2017 02 04 20
撤編日期  :2017 02 13 09
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):65 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓   :975 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
92S-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-13.7S-56E

79_26427_6d0e49fe7ccb964.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-2-1 13:20 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z評級為LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.8S 55.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311528Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A PRIMARILY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POOR
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE SOUTH,
BUT OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 C). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH ALL BUT THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTING THAT
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THE 72-96 HOUR TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abiosair (8).jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-2-3 06:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z評級提升"MEDIUM"
  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 55.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY 430
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 021431Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020552Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS (28C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, THEN
INDICATING INTENSIFICATON IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES SOUTH INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abiosair (9).jpg 92S_gefs_latest.png

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1378 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2017-2-3 21:14 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 55.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

sh9217.gif

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2763 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-2-3 21:23 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號熱帶擾動第4號
** WTIO22 FMEE 031234 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2017
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/02/2017 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: DISTURBANCE 4  1006 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 55.5 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 100NM FROM THE CENTER AND UP TO 170NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20KT
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
15.2 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2017/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
16.3 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS.=
SWI_20162017.png

20170203.1300.meteo-7.ircolor.92S.INVEST.30kts.1003mb.14.1S.55.5E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3405 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2017-2-4 06:56 | 顯示全部樓層
18Z時評級提升至High
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
abiosair.jpg


點評

OK  發表於 2017-2-4 11:53
JTWC評級High就會同步發出TCFA,可以不用特別註記0.0  發表於 2017-2-4 11:34
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-2-4 19:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-2-4 19:23 編輯

MFR 升格熱低壓 預計明天命名..
WTIO31 FMEE 040652
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 4
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/02/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 56.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/02/2017 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 05/02/2017 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 05/02/2017 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
48H: 06/02/2017 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 06/02/2017 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
72H: 07/02/2017 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2017 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 09/02/2017 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.0
LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES AINSI QUE LES IMAGES SATELLITES
VISISBLES, ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISER LE CENTRE PLUS AU SUD QUE
PRECEDEMENT ESTIME A 00Z. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE UNE PETITE CIRCULATION
BIEN DEFINIE DE BASSES COUCHES COMME REVELE PAR L'IMAGERIE EN 37 GHZ.
LES DERNIERES DONNEES ASCAT CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE DE GRAND FRAIS AU
SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION.LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, APRES AVOIR ETE EN
BAISSE CE MATIN, EST A NOUVEAU A L'AMELIORATION NETTE SUR LES DERNIERES
HEURES AVEC DES BANDES DE PLUS EN PLUS COURBEES AU SEIN DE CETTE
CIRCULATION DE PETITE TAILLE.
APRES AVOIR ACCELERE DANS LA NUIT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST, LE
SYSTEME A FORTEMENT RALENTI ET SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT TRES LENTEMENT
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD.
AUJOURD'HUI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PRENDRE UNE
COMPOSANTE SUD PLUS MARQUEE, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. DIMANCHE, LA DORSALE S'AFFAIBLIT ET
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR EN L'ABSENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEUR BIEN DEFINI.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ACCELERER VERS
LE SUD-OUEST. LES DIFFERENTS MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN ACCORD SUR
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE. LE TIMING EST ENCORE INCERTAIN MAIS
SEMBLE GRADUELLEMENT CONVERGER.
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UNE MOYENNE DES MODELES
DISPONIBLES.
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT RESTER FAVORABLES AU
DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME. DIMANCHE, AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET LE RENFORCEMENT GRADUEL DE
LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES DU COTE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT JUSQU'A LUNDI. UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
ATTENDU EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI DEVRAIT ENSUITE IMPACTER
NEGATIVEMENT LE SYSTEME LORSQU'IL SERA PREVU CIRCULER A PROXIMITE DES
MASCAREIGNES. LES CONDITIONS POURRAIENT REDEVENIR PLUS FAVORABLES EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE.

SWI_20162017.png


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-2-4 23:02 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-2-4 23:17 編輯

MFR 命名"CARLOS",將持續增強。
WTIO30 FMEE 041317
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20162017
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  4  (CARLOS)
2.A POSITION 2017/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 56.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL
FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/02/05 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2017/02/05 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2017/02/06 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2017/02/06 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/02/07 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/02/07 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/02/08 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2017/02/09 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON SPECIALLY ON
VIS IMAGERY WITH A TEMPORARILY AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE FOLLOWED BY A POP
UP OF HOT TOWERS NEAR THE CENTER VERY RECENTLY.
THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS A TOUGH ONE WITH THIS CASE OF MIDGET
SYSTEM. HIGH SPREAD ARE SEEN ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 3.0. FMEE AT 3.0 IS ASSESSED WITH A 0.6AO CURVED BAND ON
EIR (CONSTRAINTS BROKEN OVER 6 HOURS DUE TO MIDGET SYSTEM). THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS EVEN BRING UP TO 45 KT BASED ON LOW BIAIS OF THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES IN CASE OF SMALL SYSTEM.
TODAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BEND SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS, STEERED
BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN ITS NORTH-EAST. TOMORROW, THE RIDGE
IS WEAKENING AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN DUE TO THE LACK OF A
WELL DEFINED STERRING FLOW (SLOW EASTWARDS DRIFT POSSIBLE DUE TO
HIGHER STEERING LEVELS). FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK FORECAST. THE TIMING IS IN
GRADUAL BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS IN-BETWEEN GLOBAL CONSENSUS AND IFS-GFS LAST OUTPUTS.
AS RECENT ENVOLUTION SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM MANAGED TO BUILD A SMALL
BUT COMPACT INNER-CORE, THE NEXT 24H-36HR FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
UPWARD AND NOW FOLLOW THE AROME OCEAN INDIEN THAT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE REMIND THAT SMALL
SYSTEM ARE KNOWN TO SHOW RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATION UPWARDS ... AS
DOWNWARDS ...
A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE OR OVER THE
MASCAREGNES ISLANDS, INDUCING HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FINAL IMPACT
OVER THOSE SMALL ISLANDS ...
MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.=
NNNN

SWI_20162017.png 中等熱帶風暴.gif

JTWC 12升格TS,編號"04S" 強度上看CAT.1,後期將影響留尼萬島。

sh0417.gif 20170204.1400.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.04SFOUR.35kts-996mb-167S-565E.100pc.jpg


評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
t02436 + 10

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

12下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表