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98W→99W 於菲東徘徊數日 無緣成為今年首颱-JMA:GW

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-2-7 14:04 | 顯示全部樓層
由於JMA未降格過LPA,所以認定還是原系統,99W的帖子合併處理,繼續在本帖討論。
已經完成合併並歸檔處理,原99W帖無法查看,版主注意勿刪除99W討論帖。

JTWC馬上評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8N 129.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY. THIS LLCC IS
POSITIONED ADJACENT TO STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW. A 070130Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE, AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK
WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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點評

OK  發表於 2017-2-7 14:28
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