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09S.Enawo 2004年以來登陸馬達加斯加最強氣旋

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-3 22:42 | 顯示全部樓層
這報下修預期到90kt,因為要登陸馬達加斯加。
SWI$06_20162017.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-3-4 00:21 | 顯示全部樓層
sh092017.20170303144036.gif

預期可達125KTS
中心緊貼著馬達加斯加沿海移動..
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-4 14:25 | 顯示全部樓層
如同氣象機構,數值預報也已達成共識,認定3天內登陸馬達加斯加東北部,惟巔峰強度仍難以評斷。
gfs_mslp_wind_09S_13.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_4.png
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-4 14:42 | 顯示全部樓層
法國氣象局的奇葩預報,在海上就成了陸上低壓。
SWI_20162017.png
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 040621

  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20162017
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.6 E
  8. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT

  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 190
  16. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 130 NW: 130

  17. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
  18. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

  19. 1.B FORECASTS:
  20. 12H: 2017/03/04 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  21. 24H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  22. 36H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  23. 48H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  24. 60H: 2017/03/06 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  25. 72H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

  26. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  27. 96H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  28. 120H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=000 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION

  29. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  30. T=CI=3.5-

  31. ACCORDING TO THE LAST MW DATA SSMIS DOF 0257Z AND GMI OF 0316Z, THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION HAS CLEARLY IMPORVED, AND CLASSICAL IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN OF MORE THAN A HALF TOUR, WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE. CONFIRMED BY THE CIMSS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT HAS WEAKENED, BUT REMAIN MORERATE(20KT AT 03Z).

  32. ENAWO STARTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL RIDGE THAT DROVE THE TRACK. THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR DURING THE FOLLOWING HOURS. ON LAST NIGHT, THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. WITHIN THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE WESTWARD SHIFT TREND CONTINUES (GFS).THUS A LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMING OF THE LANDING, WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.
  33. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAIN VERY GOOD IN THE WEST PART AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH PART, SO THE SYSTEM GOES ON INTENSIFYING, AS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN TODAY

  34. BY THE END OF THE WEEK END, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY DECREASE, WITH STILL A STRONG POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY QUICKER. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BEFORE MONDAY AND COME CLOSER TO THE NEXT LEVEL BEFORE LANDFALLING.
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2017-3-4 21:31 | 顯示全部樓層
看來有正在建立CDO的趨勢 但底層仍有待加強
看似仍受到高層偏東風的影響
整體型態左右不太對稱 高層雲系被吹到西邊
目前還進較佳的區域比較靠近馬達加斯加近海
隨著Enawo往西接近馬達加斯加 環境才會比較轉好
現階段只能看他有沒有機會在登陸或接近陸地前快速增強
順便附上一張 METEOSAT-8 Natural Color 與 VIS可見光波段 12Z的合成圖
20170304.1218.f16.x.colorpct_91h_91v.09SENAWO.65kts-983mb-133S-568E.98pc.jpg
wm5wvir.GIF
msgiodc-msgiodc_natural.jpg

補充:
JTWC 升格Cat.1 (65 KT)
MFR 重新上望 ITC
  1. SH, 09, 2017030412,   , BEST,   0, 133S,  568E,  65,  983, TY,  50, NEQ,   25,   25,   25,   25, 1006,  200,  25,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,      ENAWO, M,
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  1. WTIO30 FMEE 041212
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20162017
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.6 E
  8. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 190
  16. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 130 NW: 130
  17. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
  18. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
  19. 1.B FORECASTS:
  20. 12H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  21. 24H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  22. 36H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  23. 48H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 60H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  25. 72H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  26. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  27. 96H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  28. 120H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  29. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  30. T=CI=3.5-
  31. ACCORDING TO THE LAST CLASSICAL IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED
  32. IN A LARGE IRREGULAR CDO, AS DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED IN THE
  33. EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.MW DATA GMI OF 03H13Z AND AMSR2 OF 09H06Z ARE QUITE
  34. SIMILARE, AS THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO MARK A PAUSE.
  35. CONFIRMED BY THE CIMSS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT REMAINS MORERATE(20KT
  36. AT 09Z).
  37. ENAWO IS NOW QUITE STATIONARY. ON NEXT NIGHT THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME
  38. WESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA
  39. IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
  40. AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE
  41. PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. WITHIN THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
  42. GUIDANCE, THE WESTWARD SHIFT TREND CONTINUES (GFS).THUS A LANDFALL
  43. OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. HOWEVER
  44. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMING OF THE
  45. LANDING, WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A
  46. COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.
  47. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAIN VERY GOOD IN THE WEST PART, SO THE
  48. SYSTEM SHOULD GOES ON INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY, DESPITE THE
  49. PERSISTANCE OF THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT FOR THE NEXT HOURS.
  50. BY THE END OF THE WEEK END, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY DECREASE, WITH
  51. STILL A STRONG POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY QUICKER. IT IS
  52. EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BEFORE MONDAY AND MAY
  53. REACH THE LOWER STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOSE TO
  54. LANDFALLING.
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trajectoire.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-5 02:10 | 顯示全部樓層
這時候了GFS還是預測899百帕……
gfs_mslp_wind_09S_11.png
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2017-3-5 12:13 | 顯示全部樓層
對流發展跟昨天東西不對稱相比 有改善許多
最新一張底層掃描顯示 也有開始捲眼的的跡象
目前還有約兩天的發展時間 就看能不能進一步 RI
20170305.0301.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v.09SENAWO.70kts-981mb-139S-563E.54pc.jpg
SWI_20162017.png
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 050110
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20162017
  5. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 56.5 E
  8. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 330 NW: 280
  16. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 170 NW: 170
  17. 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
  18. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
  19. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

  20. 1.B FORECASTS:
  21. 12H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  22. 24H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  23. 36H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 48H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  25. 60H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  26. 72H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  27. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  28. 96H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  29. 120H: 2017/03/10 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

  30. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  31. T=CI=4.0-
  32. DURING THE NIGHT, THE CENTER OF ENAWO HAS REMAINED EMBEDDED WITHIN
  33. COLD CLOUD TOP AS THE CLOUD PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS A LARGE
  34. CURVED BAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED FROM 18Z WITH MOST OF
  35. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (ADT) REMAINS AT THE SAME LEVEL.
  36. RARE GOOD QUALITY AVAILABLE FIX TONIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS
  37. DRIFT NORTHWARDS YESTERDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT.
  38. OVERALL THE MOTION IS STILL ASSESSED AS QUASI-STAT. ENAWO IS DELAYING ITS
  39. WESTWARDS MOTION THAT IS HOWEVER STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE LATER
  40. TODAY. THIS GENERAL WESTWARDS TO WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION IS DUE
  41. TO A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT IS
  42. EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR THUS BECOMING
  43. THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.
  44. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
  45. DECAY, INDUCING A GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK. WITH THE ONGOING
  46. DELAYED OF THE WESTWARDS MOTION, THE TIMING OF LANDFALL OR FINAL
  47. APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR HAS BEEN ALSO DELAYED IN BEST AGREEMENT
  48. WITH THE VERY LATEST CYCLE FROM GFS AND IFS (18 UTC CYCLE).
  49. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT SUFFER FROM A LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN DUE TO
  50. ITS CURRENT VERY SLOW MOTION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
  51. REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH
  52. OF MADAGASCAR.
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-5 15:24 | 顯示全部樓層
已升格熱帶氣旋,再次預期巔峰達到100kt。
SWI_20162017.png
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 050621

  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20162017
  5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (ENAWO)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/05 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.0 E
  8. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 190 NW: 280
  16. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 150
  17. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 70
  18. 64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

  19. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
  20. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

  21. 1.B FORECASTS:
  22. 12H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  23. 24H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 36H: 2017/03/06 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  25. 48H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  26. 60H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  27. 72H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

  28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  29. 96H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  30. 120H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

  31. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  32. T=CI=4.5-

  33. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE 0235UTC WINDSAT DATA ALLOWS TO PROVIDE A QUALITY LOCATION AND CONFIRMS THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. AT 06UTC, THE ENAWO CENTER IS LOCATED AT SOUTH EDGE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD. ENAWO IS NOW TROPICAL CYCLONE, CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF SATCON.

  34. TODAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR ORIENTS THE TRACK IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. A LANDFALL IS ESTIMATED AT THE EVENING ON TUESDAY IN MADAGASCAR. AFTER LANDING, MOVING SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE MIDDLE TROPO RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR.

  35. THE RESUMPTION OF SYSTEM DISPLACEMENT AND THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAK WINDSHEAR, HIGH OHC ...) DURING THE NEXT DAYS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR.
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