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10S.Blanche 中心登陸

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-3-2 11:19 | 顯示全部樓層
  二級熱帶氣旋  
編號:20 U ( 10 S )
名稱:Blanche

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2017 03 02 11
命名日期  :2017 03 05 09
JTWC升格日期:2017 03 05 20
撤編日期  :2017 03 07 15
登陸地點  :澳大利亞 西澳洲

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) :  50 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 50 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓    :988 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
96S-INVEST-15kts-NAmb-7S-134E

20170301.2044.windsat.WINDSAT_6GHz_IRWS.wind.96SINVEST.373_011pc_15kts-NAmb_70S_.jpg

以上資料來自:BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-3-3 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 20Z評級LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8S
134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 021258Z ASCAT PASS,
AND A 021551Z 91 GHZ ASMR2 IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abiosair.jpg


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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-3-4 07:02 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 升格熱帶低壓,有機會在整合1天後命名。
IDD65001.png 96s.png



JTWC 評級提升" MEDIUM."
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2S 133.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031235Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW CONSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN THE MICROWAVE. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM THE AUSTRALIAN
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY AT DARWIN SHOW CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CITY AND MOVING TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 C).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abiosair (1).jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-3-4 14:17 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 編號"20U",目前巔峰上看2級熱帶氣旋。
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0206 UTC 04/03/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 132.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [189 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  04/0600: 10.1S 132.2E:     040 [080]:  025  [045]: 1002
+12:  04/1200: 10.4S 131.9E:     055 [100]:  025  [045]: 1002
+18:  04/1800: 10.9S 131.6E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]: 1000
+24:  05/0000: 11.3S 131.2E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]:  997
+36:  05/1200: 12.3S 130.1E:     100 [185]:  045  [085]:  992
+48:  06/0000: 13.2S 129.1E:     120 [220]:  055  [100]:  985
+60:  06/1200: 14.4S 127.8E:     140 [255]:  050  [095]:  989
+72:  07/0000: 15.6S 126.4E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  08/0000: 17.5S 124.0E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]: 1000
+120: 09/0000: 18.5S 122.7E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The centre was located using animated Visible satellite imagery. Satellite
depicts an exposed small, tight vortex close to the deep convection moving in a
southerly direction.

Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based a shear pattern averaged over 3h giving a
DT=2.0. MET is not available. Max winds set at 25kt.

The low is in a region of high 20-30kt ESE wind shear based on CIMSS. The upper
ridge is located further south and is providing good upper diffluence and
allowing the convection to develop to the W of the LLCC.

The low is expected to move S to SW during the next 2-3 days placing the low in
a more favourable shear environment. Intensity forecast is based on a standard
development rate with TC strength expected by 00Z on 5 March.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

IDD65001 (1).png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-3-5 09:56 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM命名Blanche,巔峰上望澳式C2,明天登陸。
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0145 UTC 05/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 130.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.024HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  05/0600: 12.3S 129.8E:     040 [080]:  040  [075]:  993
+12:  05/1200: 12.7S 129.4E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  990
+18:  05/1800: 13.0S 128.9E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  987
+24:  06/0000: 13.4S 128.3E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  984
+36:  06/1200: 14.6S 127.4E:     100 [180]:  045  [085]:  987
+48:  07/0000: 15.8S 126.3E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  999
+60:  07/1200: 16.6S 124.8E:     140 [255]:  025  [045]: 1001
+72:  08/0000: 16.8S 123.5E:     155 [290]:  025  [045]: 1001
+96:  09/0000: 17.6S 121.8E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 10/0000: 19.0S 121.2E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
The system centre is currently difficult to locate. Position based largely on
surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, satellite
imagery, radar and persistence in past motion.

Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown continued bursts of
convection close to but just west of the low level circulation centre [LLCC],.

Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based on MET=3.0 using a D trend [no adjustment to
MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.6 wrap yielded DT
3.0. System intensity is set at 35 knots.

Recent motion has been to the SW at 6 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to
continue to the SW during the next few days under the steering influence of a
mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. NWP is in fair
agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley
coast Monday evening.

The low is located under the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow
from the NW to SW to S quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the
influence of moderate 15-20 knots E wind shear. However during the last 24 hours
the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting
any negative effects from the shear.

As the low moves SW it remains under the upper ridge and so the system is
forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at
landfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

IDD65001.png

JTWC發布TCFA
sh962017.20170305014030.gif

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-3-5 22:23 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格10S
sh1017.gif

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-3-6 11:09 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM升格二級熱帶氣旋,準備登陸。
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0139 UTC 06/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 128.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  06/0600: 14.5S 127.8E:     040 [080]:  055  [100]:  984
+12:  06/1200: 15.0S 127.5E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  986
+18:  06/1800: 15.4S 127.0E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]:  994
+24:  07/0000: 16.0S 126.4E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  997
+36:  07/1200: 16.7S 124.8E:     100 [185]:  020  [035]: 1002
+48:  08/0000: 16.7S 123.8E:     120 [220]:  020  [035]: 1001
+60:  08/1200: 17.0S 122.4E:     140 [255]:  020  [035]: 1002
+72:  09/0000: 17.3S 121.6E:     155 [290]:  020  [035]: 1001
+96:  10/0000: 18.6S 120.2E:     200 [370]:  020  [035]: 1002
+120: 11/0000: 19.7S 119.4E:     290 [535]:  020  [035]: 1004
REMARKS:
LLCC has now moved into range of the Wyndham radar which is allowing a good fix
on the location of Tropical Cyclone Blanche.

The system showed improved organisation overnight on satellite imagery as shear
decreased. Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based on MET of 3.5 with a D- trend as DT
not clear.

Recent motion has been to the SW at 9 knots. Forecast motion is for the system
to continue tracking to the SW under the steering influence of a mid level ridge
to the northeast. NWP is in good agreement with the forecast track, with the
system crossing the north Kimberley coast early Monday afternoon, WA time, as a
Category 2 system.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

IDD65001.png

JTWC預測出海後還會增強重回TS
sh102017.20170306021648.gif

20170306.0210.himawari-8.ircolor.10S.BLANCHE.50kts.991mb.14S.128.2E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-3-6 17:58 | 顯示全部樓層
03Z已登陸,06Z減弱為一級熱帶氣旋。
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 06/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 127.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  06/1200: 15.4S 127.0E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]:  988
+12:  06/1800: 15.8S 126.5E:     055 [100]:  025  [045]:  993
+18:  07/0000: 16.3S 125.9E:     065 [125]:  020  [035]:  997
+24:  07/0600: 16.8S 125.1E:     080 [145]:  020  [035]: 1000
+36:  07/1800: 17.0S 123.8E:     100 [185]:  020  [035]: 1002
+48:  08/0600: 17.3S 122.7E:     120 [220]:  020  [035]: 1001
+60:  08/1800: 17.5S 121.5E:     140 [255]:  020  [035]: 1001
+72:  09/0600: 17.9S 120.7E:     155 [290]:  020  [035]: 1001
+96:  10/0600: 19.2S 119.3E:     200 [370]:  020  [035]: 1003
+120: 11/0600: 20.6S 119.1E:     290 [535]:  020  [035]: 1003
REMARKS:
LLCC evident on radar, continuing to track inland after crossing the coast at
03Z today.


Dvorak analysis unavailable due to system being located over land.

Recent motion has been to the SW at 10 knots. NWP guidance shows system becoming
increasingly sheared from this evening as the middle-level circulation moves
southwest more rapidly than the LLCC. Although the LLCC is expected to track
west towards the coast again mid-week, the shear and the influence of dry air
are expected to prevent redevelopment.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1400 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

IDWP0005.png

rbtop-animated.gif

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