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15S.Ernie 澳洲海域近11年首120kt氣旋

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-4-5 14:45 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-4-12 14:06 編輯

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋   
編號:26 U ( 15 S )
名稱:Ernie

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 04 05 14
JTWC升格日期:2017 04 06 14
命名日期  :2017 04 07 02
撤編日期  :2017 04 12 10
登陸地點  :暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) :  120 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 130 kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓    :922 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94S-INVEST-15kts-NAmb-11.8S-111.7E

20170405.0520.himawari8.x.vis2km.94SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-118S-1117E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 這個怎麼沒有加分@@

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劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-5 16:01 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 編號"26U"
The monsoon trough lies just south of Indonesia and over waters north of the Northern Territory. A tropical low (26U) lies near 11S 113E, about 300 kilometres southwest of Bali. The system should develop further as it moves south to southwest into a slightly more favourable environment for tropical cyclone development.
During Friday it may take a more southeast track and intensify further before turning towards the southwest on Saturday where there is a chance it may develop into a tropical cyclone.
From Sunday the system will continue to move west or southwest and could start to weaken from late Sunday or Monday. At this stage is not expected to impact the WA mainland or Christmas Island.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursdayow,
Friday:Moderate,
Saturday:High.


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劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-6 04:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z評級提升"MEDIUM"
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 111.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE SYSTEM. A 051446Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LLCC WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP IN FROM THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS) AND, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
abiosair (3).jpg rgb-animated.gif


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劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-6 09:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 發布TCFA,逐漸發展。
sh9417.gif rbtop-animated (1).gif

點評

現在強度30kts,1000hpa,環境良好,個人評價very high  發表於 2017-4-6 10:52

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +20 收起 理由
ben811018 + 20

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劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-6 14:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-4-6 14:57 編輯

BoM 升格熱帶低壓,
SITUATION
At 0300 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal two south (13.2S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal one east (111.1E)
Recent movement : south at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 35 knots in the SW and NW quadrants
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant,
extending to within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant by 0300 UTC 07 April.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots in the SW and NW quadrants, increasing to 40 knots in
all quadrants by 0300 UTC 07 April. Rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1500 UTC 06 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 13.6 south 111.2 east
                        Central pressure 1000 hPa.
                        Winds to 35 knots in SW and NW quadrants.
At 0300 UTC 07 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.2 south 111.3 east
                        Central pressure 1000 hPa.
                        Winds to 40 knots near centre in all quadrants.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 06 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH
IDW60280.png

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劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-7 06:39 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-4-7 06:48 編輯

BoM 命名"Ernie"
IDW60280 (1).png bom.png rbtop-animated (2).gif

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krichard2011|2017-4-7 11:48 | 顯示全部樓層
一點都不像是剛命名的樣子
底層非常扎實 BoM 直升 澳式C2 上看澳式C3
20170406.2315.f18.x.colorpct_91h_91v.15SFIFTEEN.40kts-998mb-145S-1105E.88pc.jpg
IDW60280.png
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劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-7 15:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-4-7 15:20 編輯

BoM最新一報,直升澳式C4,有機會再持續增強升C5,好運的是對陸地不會造成影響。
IDW23100
40:3:2:24:15S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0639UTC 7 APRIL 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal three south (15.3S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds   : 90 knots
Central pressure: 956 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 90 knots near the centre increasing to 115 knots by 0600 UTC
08 April.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 07 April: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.7 south 110.1 east
                        Central pressure 934 hPa.
                        Winds to 110 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 08 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.0 south 109.5 east
                        Central pressure 929 hPa.
                        Winds to 115 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 07 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

IDW60280 (2).png rgb-animated (1).gif rbtop-animated (3).gif

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