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16P.Cook 轉為溫帶氣旋 襲擊紐西蘭

簽到天數: 1976 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2017-4-5 23:31 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-4-13 06:29 編輯

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋   
編號:20 F ( 16 P )
名稱:Cook

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 04 05 22
JTWC升格日期:2017 04 08 08
命名日期  :2017 04 08 20
撤編日期  :2017 04 12 21
登陸地點  :新喀里多尼亞

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  85 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 85 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓    :970 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料     
95P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.1S.176.1E

20170405.1450.himawari-8.ir.95P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.1S.176.1E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-6 09:46 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS  編號20F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.6S 175.6W
AT 052100UTC. TD20F CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARDS. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SAT
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS NOT
INCREASED OR DEEPEN MUCH IN PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER OUTFLOW CENTRE.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER  INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.



點評

目前強度15kts,1010hpa,且sst有30度,但風切不明只給low  發表於 2017-4-6 10:48
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-7 08:58 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 評Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9S 171.6E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A 061612Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ORGANIZING RATHER QUICKLY. THE CIMSS 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS INCREASED VORTICITY WITH IMPROVED SYMMETRY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER AN AREA
OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS, AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-7 14:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC: TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 171.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY
455 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070311Z SSMI 37GHZ DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, LIGHT
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


abpwsair.jpg

點評

強度是25kts1004hpa,風切15kt,sst30度,評價high  發表於 2017-4-7 15:01
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2017-4-8 12:59 | 顯示全部樓層
升級了!初報估計顛峰90KTS!
sh1617.gif



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-8 13:26 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 開始發報文,預計今明有機會命名,將 南下影響群島。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 080146 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 167.8E
AT 080000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN PERSISTENT NEAR LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. TD20F LIES IN A  LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.45 WRAP YEIDS DT=2.5, PT
AND MET AGREE. THUS, YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPCAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 16.6S 167.4E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 17.5S 167.3E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 18.3S 166.9E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.3S 166.4E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080800 UTC.
65660 (1).gif rgb-animated (2).gif


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-4-8 21:46 | 顯示全部樓層
命名Cook,預測二級熱帶氣旋登陸新喀里多尼亞。
65660.gif
  1. WTPS01 NFFN 081200
  2. STORM WARNING 022  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 081304 UTC.

  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6
  4. SOUTH 167.4 EAST AT 081200 UTC.
  5. POSITION POOR.
  6. REPEAT POSITION 16.6S 167.4E at 081200 UTC.
  7. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
  8. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
  9. 50 KNOTS BY 091200 UTC.

  10. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  11.                        AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  12.                        AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  13.                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

  14. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 167.0E AT 090000 UTC
  15.               AND NEAR 18.6S 166.4E AT 091200 UTC.

  16. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
  17. REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
  18. NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
  19. AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

  20. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 021.
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2017-4-10 01:11 | 顯示全部樓層
眼牆大致已逐漸成形
強度已達到澳式C3 穩定增強中
20170409.1530.f15.x.colorpct_85h_85v.16PCOOK.70kts-970mb-185S-1668E.76pc.jpg
65660.gif
  1. HURRICANE WARNING 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 091312 UTC.

  2. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4
  3. SOUTH 166.7 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
  4. POSITION FAIR.
  5. REPEAT POSITION 18.4S 166.7E at 091200 UTC.
  6. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
  7. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
  8. INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY 101200 UTC.

  9. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
  10. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
  11. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  12.                        AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  13.                        AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  14.                        AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

  15. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 166.0E AT 100000 UTC
  16.               AND NEAR 21.3S 165.9E AT 101200 UTC.

  17. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
  18. EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
  19. VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

  20. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 025.
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