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01B.Maarutha 北印首旋 登陸緬甸 逐漸消散

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-4-13 10:30 | 顯示全部樓層
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簽到天數: 1556 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2017-4-14 06:17 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級LOW
  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 763 NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131224Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 130410Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-
15 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SST (30-32 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abiosair.jpg

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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-14 10:09 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD評級Fair

SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. THE
TROUGH OF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA
PERSISTS.IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE GRADUALLY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
48 HOURS OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD

3Dasiasec_ir1.jpg

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簽到天數: 85 天

[LV.6]常住居民II

陳約禮@FB|2017-4-14 12:41 | 顯示全部樓層

JTWC評級升為Medium
ABIO10 PGTW 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/140400Z-141800ZAPR2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 87.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 140103Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED
LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A SHARP TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST INDIA, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SST
(30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg


GFS蠻看好的
92B_gefs_latest.png

點評

路徑像2008 Nargis  發表於 2017-4-15 20:53
現在強度25kts,1004hpa,風切低,sst超過30度,評價very high  發表於 2017-4-14 12:55
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簽到天數: 161 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2017-4-14 19:46 | 顯示全部樓層
泰國升格了,不知道印度有沒有升格
2017-04-14_TopChart_13.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-15 09:45 | 顯示全部樓層
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-15 15:01 | 顯示全部樓層
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-15 21:30 | 顯示全部樓層
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