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01L.Arlene 高緯轉暖 北大西洋衛星時代第2個4月TS

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-4-17 19:47 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:01L
名稱:Arlene

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 04 17 19
命名日期  :2017 04 21 05
轉化日期  :2017 04 21 20

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速: 45 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓: 993 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
01L-Arlene.png
  討論帖圖片  
91L.INVEST.50kts.986mb.33.5N.47.3W

20170417.1115.goes13.x.wv1km.91LINVEST.50kts-NAmb-335N-473W.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-4-18 09:31 | 顯示全部樓層
補充NHC評級資訊。
1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center.  This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward.  The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday.  For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

two_atl_2d0.png

91L_gefs_latest.png

rb-animated.gif

點評

似乎在持續減弱中,剩35kts992hpa,評價low  發表於 2017-4-19 14:39
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-19 19:25 | 顯示全部樓層
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-4-19 23:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2017-4-19 23:18 編輯

2003年Ana以來北大西洋首個4月熱帶或副熱帶氣旋,預計一天以後消散。
151126_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
000
WTNT41 KNHC 191431
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
1100 AM AST Wed Apr 19 2017

The non-tropical low over the north central Atlantic which has
been tracked by NHC for the past few days has developed organized
convection mainly in a curved band southeast of the center. The
system is still embedded within an upper-low, the outflow is minimal
and the strongest winds are removed from the center of circulation.
Consequently, the low is being classified as a subtropical
depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. These winds are based
on recent ASCAT data. It is anticipated that shear and cold waters
will not allow intensification, and the subtropical depression is
expected to become absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone in
about 36 hours or sooner.

The subtropical depression is moving toward the north-northeast at
about 10 kt. A gradual turn to the north and north-northwest
around the approaching extratropical low is forecast for the next
24 hours or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 31.9N  40.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  20/0000Z 32.8N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  20/1200Z 35.0N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
20170419.1445.goes13.x.vis1km.91LINVEST.30kts-995mb-316N-411W.100pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-4-20 15:04 | 顯示全部樓層
4月19日副熱帶低壓第1號,2003年以來北大西洋首個4月熱帶/副熱帶系統。
01L 2017-04-19 1530Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:01L_2017-04-19_1530Z.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-4-20 22:52 | 顯示全部樓層
高緯完全轉暖
144740_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
000
WTNT41 KNHC 201442
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression One Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
1100 AM AST Thu Apr 20 2017

Conventional satellite imagery indicate that the convection,
although not very deep, has become more symmetric around the center,
suggesting that the subtropical cyclone has transitioned into a
tropical depression. This is supported by AMSU data this morning
that shows that the system has developed a weak, but warm core. This
transition is a common process, and does not change the previous
intensity or track forecasts that call for the depression to
become a remnant low later today, and become absorbed by a larger
low tonight or early Friday.  It is estimated that the depression is
producing winds of 30 kt within some convective bands. Since the
circulation is already becoming elongated, a weakening trend is
likely to begin soon.

The depression is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt, and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
to continue until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 36.1N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 38.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-4-21 02:24 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC即將命名Arlene。

AL, 01, 2017042018,   , BEST,   0, 373N,  407W,  40,  993, TS,  34, NEQ,   90,   90,    0,    0, 1010,  400,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     ARLENE, M,
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-21 02:53 | 顯示全部樓層
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