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17S.Frances 橫越北澳外海

簽到天數: 5 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

2017-4-21 18:57 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-5-2 17:53 編輯

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:29 U ( 17 S )
名稱:Frances

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 04 21 18
命名日期  :2017 04 27 14
撤編日期  :2017 05 02 16
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速與最低氣壓
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) :65 kts
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):70 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓: 983 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
Tropical Cyclone_Frances_TRACK MAP.png

  擾動編號資料  
97P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.9.5S.143E

20170421.1010.himawari-8.ir.97P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.9.5S.143E.100pc.jpg

點評

現在強度15kts.1010hpa.已登陸.評價是low  發表於 2017-4-22 22:58

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 2762 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-4-24 08:53 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC看來評級Low了,只是沒有報文
abpwsair.jpg

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 7.5S, 137.5E, about 530 km north of Nhulunbuy at 12:30pm CST on 23 April 2017. The tropical low is expected to take a southwest track across the Arafura Sea and slowly develop during the coming days with an increasing risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday : Low.
Tuesday : Low.
Wednesday : Moderate.

In the longer term the low is forecast to move into the Timor Sea towards the end of the week.

97P_gefs_latest.png

20170424.0000.himawari-8.ircolor.97P.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.8.9S.137E.100pc.jpg

點評

強度不看好,最高強度約991~999hpa  發表於 2017-4-25 23:47
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簽到天數: 3403 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2017-4-26 06:26 | 顯示全部樓層
17Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 251324Z AMSU-B METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO WHEN AND HOW STRONGLY THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg

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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-26 11:14 | 顯示全部樓層
TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

2017SH97_4KMIRIMG_201704260220.GIF

sh972017.20170426021858.gif
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-27 12:41 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 03Z升格"17S",強度僅上看45kts。
sh1717.gif rbtop_lalo-animated.gif


BoM 升格"熱低壓",今明有機會命名,強度暫時上望澳式C2。
IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:10S130E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0129UTC 27 APRIL 2017

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nine decimal six south (9.6S)
longitude one hundred and thirty decimal five east (130.5E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds   : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1004 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12
hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
From 1200 UTC 27 April winds above 34 knots expected within 30 nautical miles
of centre, extending to 75 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrants with rough to
very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 27 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 10.3 south 129.0 east
                        Central pressure 999 hPa.
                        Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 28 April: Within 95 nautical miles of 10.9 south 127.3 east
                        Central pressure 997 hPa.
                        Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0730 UTC 27 April 2017.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IDD65001 (1).png

點評

看起來就像是短命颱,僅上看40kts.997hpa  發表於 2017-4-27 13:38
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-27 17:38 | 顯示全部樓層
BOM命名為Frances

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.1 degrees South, 129.4 degrees East , 185 kilometres northwest of Pirlangimpi and 555 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu .
Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on Friday however if it takes a more southerly track gales may commence on the north Kimberley coast on Saturday

image.png

點評

BOM編號"29U"  發表於 2017-4-27 19:02
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-4-28 02:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 是編號"17S",不是17P...
TPXS10 PGTW 271459

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES)

B. 17/1430Z

C. 11.19S

D. 127.99E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS A 2.0 AND THE PT YIELDS 2.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LOWE
sh1717 (1).gif


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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-28 08:44 | 顯示全部樓層
BOM上看澳式C3
IDD65001.png


abpwsair.jpg

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