A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 7.5S, 137.5E, about 530 km north of Nhulunbuy at 12:30pm CST on 23 April 2017. The tropical low is expected to take a southwest track across the Arafura Sea and slowly develop during the coming days with an increasing risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Wednesday.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday : Low.
Tuesday : Low.
Wednesday : Moderate.
In the longer term the low is forecast to move into the Timor Sea towards the end of the week.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 251324Z AMSU-B METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO WHEN AND HOW STRONGLY THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0129UTC 27 APRIL 2017
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nine decimal six south (9.6S)
longitude one hundred and thirty decimal five east (130.5E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1004 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12
From 1200 UTC 27 April winds above 34 knots expected within 30 nautical miles
of centre, extending to 75 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrants with rough to
very rough seas and moderate swell.
At 1200 UTC 27 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 10.3 south 129.0 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 28 April: Within 95 nautical miles of 10.9 south 127.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to email@example.com or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.
Next warning will be issued by 0730 UTC 27 April 2017.
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.1 degrees South, 129.4 degrees East , 185 kilometres northwest of Pirlangimpi and 555 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu .
Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on Friday however if it takes a more southerly track gales may commence on the north Kimberley coast on Saturday