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krichard2011|2017-4-28 20:16
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顯示全部樓層
BoM 已升格三級強烈熱帶氣旋
現在看起來差不多要開眼了
也是一個小鋼炮型的熱帶氣旋
- IDD20020
- TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
- Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
- at: 0716 UTC 28/04/2017
- Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances
- Identifier: 29U
- Data At: 0600 UTC
- Latitude: 11.8S
- Longitude: 125.6E
- Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
- Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
- Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
- Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
- Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
- Central Pressure: 983 hPa
- Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
- Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
- Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
- Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
- Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
- Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
- FORECAST DATA
- Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
- [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
- +06: 28/1200: 12.1S 124.5E: 040 [080]: 070 [130]: 984
- +12: 28/1800: 12.4S 123.5E: 055 [100]: 075 [140]: 983
- +18: 29/0000: 12.8S 122.5E: 065 [125]: 070 [130]: 984
- +24: 29/0600: 13.0S 121.6E: 080 [145]: 060 [110]: 986
- +36: 29/1800: 13.3S 120.3E: 100 [185]: 050 [095]: 994
- +48: 30/0600: 13.5S 119.2E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 1003
- +60: 30/1800: 13.6S 118.4E: 140 [255]: 030 [050]: 1006
- +72: 01/0600: 13.6S 117.8E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1004
- +96: 02/0600: 13.4S 116.5E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1005
- +120: 03/0600: 12.4S 114.4E: 270 [500]: 015 [030]: 1012
- REMARKS:
- Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances has shown evidence of an eye developing over the
- last three hours. This, combined with earlier microwave and scatterometer
- passes, gives high confidence in the location of the system.
- Intensity was based on PAT and MET [with a D+] as DT not clear, despite
- appearance of an eye, due to cirrus over the eye. The FT is also biased towards
- the FT and CI = 4.5 by the overnight Ascat pass at 1336 UTC indicating winds of
- 45-50 knots on the southern side and observations in the area of 40-50 knots.
- The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
- pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
- divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. This, in
- conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a
- developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the
- cyclone.
- Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the west-southwest over
- the next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
- west-southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
- environment and in a diffluent upper pattern for about another 24 hours before
- the shear increases.
- From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into this higher shear
- environment due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
- dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength on
- Sunday.
- Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
- ==
- The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1400 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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