開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

18P.Donna 逐漸消散 持續南下

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

2017-4-30 08:30 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-5-11 16:05 編輯

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:21 F ( 18 P )
名稱:Donna

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 04 30 08
JTWC升格日期:2017 05 03 02
命名日期  :2017 05 03 15
撤編日期  :2017 05 11 13
登陸地點  :暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  110 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 120 kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓    :935 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
99P.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.11.2S 162.9E

20170429.2320.himawari-8.vis.99P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11.2S.162.9E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

斐濟強度放錯了,應該是110kt 935hPa  發表於 2017-5-8 23:04

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 補加分

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-1 10:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWCOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.8S 165.4E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE DISTURBANCE. A
302158Z AMSU-B METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), BUT IS OFFSET BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT BECOME SPLIT AS TO THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS
abpwsair.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3405 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2017-5-1 17:36 | 顯示全部樓層
05Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 165.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 167.6E, APPROXIMATELY
350 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA , VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010256Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED  
PERSISTENT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WHICH WAS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 302159 25KM METOP-B DESCENDING ASCAT PASS, AND
ALSO SUGGESTED IN AN 850MB VORTICITY PRODUCT. PERIPHERAL WINDS ON
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LLC ARE
15-30 KNOTS AND 15-20 KNOTS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST
RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE HOOKING BACK WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON DATA ANALYZED AND
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abiosair.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-5-1 17:48 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號"21F"
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 010903 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD21F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.3S
167.8E AT 010600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SUPOSSED LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY MOVE TD21F WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
rbtop-animated (3).gif


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-2 10:41 | 顯示全部樓層
TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 169.9E TO 14.6S 173.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 170.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED/MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
011909Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED DEEP, PERSISTENT AND
FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011032Z 25KM (METOP-B)
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH A FEW
30 KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTRAPOLATED
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT
SOURCE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE HOOKING BACK
TOWARD A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022100Z.
//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-2 17:44 | 顯示全部樓層
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 020930 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD21F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.1S
171.2E AT 020900UTC MOVING EASTWARDS AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE SUPPOSED LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM
LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY MOVE TD21F WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
FMS: LOW

點評

極向流出良好的話,可以協助系統擋住南則的超乾燥的空氣。  發表於 2017-5-3 11:10
NET
這隻距離離噴流不遠,極向流出應該不錯,表現不會太差。  發表於 2017-5-2 23:15
jtwc:high;fms:low;我給出high  發表於 2017-5-2 22:23
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-5-3 06:27 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z率先升格TS,編號"18P",強度上看Cat.3。
sh1817.gif rbtop-animated (4).gif


FMS 升格"熱低壓",預計今天有機會命名。
WOPS01 NFFN 021800
GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 021912 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD21F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.3S 170.9E AT
021800UTC. TD21F SLOW MOVING. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD21F CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST.
  
AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TD21F.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-3 10:49 | 顯示全部樓層
系統的對流頗深厚,主要集中在中心密集雲區的東面,雲頂溫度受日際變化影響稍有回升。
image.jpeg

回復

使用道具 舉報

1234下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

W環

    主題

    帖子

    19萬

    積分

    11級[狂風Violent storm]

    Rank: 11Rank: 11Rank: 11Rank: 11

11級[狂風Violent storm]

發訊息

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表