ben811018

低層風場廣闊
明後天將達顛峰
掠過法屬新喀里多尼亞群島

Meow

5月7日萬那杜以西強烈熱帶氣旋唐娜

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 017-05-07_0248Z.jpg

Meow

Donna形成於5月的南太平洋已經相當稀罕，不僅是1997年June以來南太平洋首個5月熱帶氣旋，也是1986年Namu（斐濟評價80kt、JTWC評價95kt）以來首個5月南太平洋強烈熱帶氣旋，更是南太平洋自衛星時代以來第2個5月強烈熱帶氣旋。

tpm630

(5/7早上)



(最新)





一如模式先前預測，乾空氣逸入的狀況在今天有所改善
早上開始中層大氣回到相對溼度60%的水平，配合低風切和顯著的外流
經過一段時間的結構調整，最新微波影像顯示東側螺旋雨帶對流減弱，同時東側眼牆對流明顯建立
這代表螺旋雨帶對流所伴隨的次環流減弱，降低其下沉作用對眼牆上升運動的影響
同時系統強對流所提供的潛熱釋放也更加集中在中心附近，加熱效率有所提升
進而使颱風的暖心增強，開始有效降低中心氣壓。


預計今天深夜到明天早上Donny的強度將達到巔峰，仍有機會挑戰C4
後續隨著颱風開始接近斜壓區，暖心及正壓結構會被破壞，將開始進行轉化

Meow

RSMC評價100kt 948hPa，配上JTWC的120kt，已鞏固5月南太平洋風王地位。

HURRICANE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 071903 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 948HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4
SOUTH 164.7 EAST AT 071800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.4S 164.7E at 071800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.0S 165.1E AT 080600 UTC
              AND NEAR 19.4S 165.8E AT 081800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032.

W環

昨天清空速度幾快的，有OW,不過眼溫現在回落中。

krichard2011

FMS 升格澳式5級
果然是南半球深秋的猛獸
經過一次又一次的底層建立失敗
總算是成功開啟風眼 風眼圓潤了許多
不過還有可改進空間

1. HURRICANE WARNING 038 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 080118 UTC.
   
2. 
   
3. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 937HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0
   
4. SOUTH 164.8 EAST AT 080000 UTC.
   
5. POSITION GOOD.
   
6. REPEAT POSITION 17.0S 164.8E at 080000 UTC.
   
7. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS.
   
8. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
   
9. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
   
10. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    
11.                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    
12.                  AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    
13.                  AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
    
14. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    
15.                  AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    
16.                  AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    
17.                  AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
    
18. 
    
19. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.6S 165.4E AT 081200 UTC
    
20.               AND NEAR 20.0S 166.0E AT 090000 UTC.
    
21. 
    
22. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
    
23. EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
    
24. VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
    
25. 
    
26. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 035.

複製代碼

ben811018

越來越紮實了
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