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01E.Adrian 東太最早生成首旋 風切影響 降格熱低

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-5-8 05:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-5-16 11:40 編輯

  熱帶風暴  
編號:01 E
名稱:Adrian

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 05 08 03
命名日期  :2017 05 10 11
撤編日期  :2017 05 16 06
登陸地點  :暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :40  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 :1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90E.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.8N.88.5W

20170507.2130.goes13.x.vis1km_high.90EINVEST.20kts-1008mb-80N-885W.82pc.jpg

  NHC : 20%  
1. An area of of disturbed weather has developed in association with a
low pressure area a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Costa Rica.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while the low moves slowly toward the northwest.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 12 PM
PDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. two_pac_2d0.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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alu
請問一下,個位大大西太和東太近中心最強風速算法不一樣嗎?為甚麼東太35kt 才1005 百帕,而西太35kt大部分已經低於1000 百帕以下了  發表於 2017-5-10 22:24

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 補加分

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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-8 08:26 | 顯示全部樓層
目前濕區在西半球,支持系統的發展
image.gif


image.png



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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-5-9 06:36 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升50%
1. A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south
of El Salvador.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form within the next day or two while the low moves slowly toward
the northwest.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 12 PM PDT Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png 90E_intensity_latest.png 90E_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-9 12:21 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 W環 於 2017-5-9 12:22 編輯

NHC提升至70%
image.png


image.gif

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簽到天數: 1378 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2017-5-9 20:54 | 顯示全部樓層
發布TCFA
ep9017.gif

90E_gefs_latest.png

wg8vor.GIF

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-5-10 00:42 | 顯示全部樓層
90%了,01E準備誕生。
1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador have become better
organized this morning. If this development trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later today.
  This system is forecast
to move slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of Central America and southeastern
Mexico through at least Thursday.  If tropical cyclone formation
does not occur, another Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 9 PM PDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png

vis-animated.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2017-5-10 05:59 | 顯示全部樓層
01E 東太首旋誕生 上看C2或更高
ep012017.20170509210456.gif

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跟CWB之前蓮花那個正圓形有得比XD  發表於 2017-5-10 18:06
這潛勢範圍真大@@  發表於 2017-5-10 09:56
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-5-10 09:43 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 2017東太平洋熱帶氣旋報文第一報存檔
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092039
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of El Salvador has continued to become better
organized, with developing convective banding features.  Also, data
from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that a closed circulation has
developed.  Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system.
The intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer
measurements and a Dvorak classification from SAB. The tropical
cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of SSTs near 30 deg C
through the forecast period, and the global models show the system
remaining beneath an upper-level anticyclone with well-defined
outflow.  Thus, strengthening is likely and the official intensity
forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus.

Geostationary satellite and scatterometer fixes indicate that the
initial motion is 300/5 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to be
situated to the south of a mid-level anticyclone, centered over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, for the next several days.  This
steering pattern should maintain a general west-northwestward motion
through 72 hours or so.  Later in the forecast period, the
anticyclone is predicted to weaken and this should induce a turn to
the north.  The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of
the dynamical track guidance, and is between the GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z  9.3N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/0600Z  9.7N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 10.1N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 10.5N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 10.8N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  12/1800Z 12.0N  96.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  13/1800Z 13.0N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 14.0N  96.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

205711_5day_cone_with_line.png

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哈哈 我是懶著去抓NHC的  發表於 2017-5-10 18:07
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