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03L.Cindy 中心登陸 逐漸減弱

簽到天數: 1970 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2017-6-18 01:06 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:03 L
名稱:Cindy

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 06 18 00
命名日期  :2017 06 21 02
撤編日期  :2017 06 24 19
登陸地點  :美國 德克薩斯州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :45  kt
海平面最低氣壓 :996 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
03L-Cindy.png
  擾動編號資料  

93L.INVEST.25kts-1008mb-17.5N-87.5W

20170617.1645.goes13.x.vis1km_high.93LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-175N-875W.100pc.jpg

NHC:20%
2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent land areas.  Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and a
tropical cyclone could form early next week over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. two_atl_2d2.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15

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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-18 08:31 | 顯示全部樓層
好快就被優卡坦的地型磨了

image.png

點評

我也不完全了解,只看冷心或暖心就算了XD  發表於 2017-6-21 09:57
好專業的圖@@我都看不懂  發表於 2017-6-20 23:20
不會有進一步發展,評級very low  發表於 2017-6-18 09:29
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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-19 10:28 | 顯示全部樓層
數值開始看好發展,主要移向美國南部地區

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-6-20 07:01 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 升格"03L",再次使用使用"潛在熱帶氣旋"!!趨向美國 路易士安納州
000
WTNT43 KNHC 192047
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A pair of ASCAT passes between 15 and 16Z showed that the
disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico has an area of tropical-storm-
force winds within a large area of deep convection 100 to 150 n mi
northeast of a broad low center. The ASCAT data and visible
satellite imagery show that the center is not well defined, and in
fact multiple low-level swirls are evident in the latest imagery. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the system and will provide more data on its wind
structure.

The NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and
warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but
which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane
conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy
this was not possible.  These systems are known as Potential
Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the
same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central
Gulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued.
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.

The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data. The
initial pressure is set to 1002 mb based on extrapolated data from
the aircraft. Only modest strengthening is expected given the
moderate to strong southwesterly shear of around 30 kt expected to
persist over the system during the next couple of days. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus aid.

Given the broad nature of the low, the initial motion estimate is a
rather uncertain 350/08. During the first 12 to 24 hours the system
will move northward to north-northwestward due to the a weakness in
the subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf and then the system
should slow and turn more northwestward as it interacts with an
upper-level low currently situated off the Texas coast.  The details
of this interaction will have significant implications on the track
of the system, and there remains a fair amount of model spread.  The
HWRF is on the right side of the guidance envelope, with a track
toward southeastern Louisiana while the UKMET and ECMWF show a
solution toward southwest Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas. For
now, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope
and a little left of the TCVA consensus aid. Given the disorganized
nature of the circulation and the fact that the wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 24.7N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  20/0600Z 26.0N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 27.2N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  21/0600Z 27.9N  91.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  21/1800Z 28.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  22/1800Z 32.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
96H  23/1800Z 35.5N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
205153_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-20 08:35 | 顯示全部樓層
路易斯安娜以及德州一帶開始要密切留意

image.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-6-21 02:56 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 命名"CINDY"。中心裸露,環流倒是蠻廣泛的,已經開始影響美國南部陸地,中心趨向美國南部休士頓和路易士交界處。
DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Satellite imagery, aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that the low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico has
acquired a well-defined center, and is now Tropical Storm Cindy, the
third tropical storm of 2017.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
centered near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Cindy has
been stationary for the past few hours, but the system is expected
to resume a motion toward the northwest at around 10 mph (17 km/h)
later today, and this motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early
Thursday. On the forecast track, Cindy is expected to approach
the coast of southwest Louisiana late Wednesday or Wednesday night,
and move inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system
reaches the coast on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
173424_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png recon_AF308-0203A-INVEST.png rgb-animated (7).gif


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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-21 10:25 | 顯示全部樓層
頑強的生命力,硬著頭皮迎接風切,很厲害的雨帶



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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-22 09:02 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 W環 於 2017-6-22 09:04 編輯

清晰可見的低空中心,想起爛卡了 XD

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