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97W JMA:TD 掠過日本南方近海後消散 一度發布TCFA

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-6-22 02:46 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:97 W
名稱:
TD_97W.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 06 22 02
升格熱低日期:2017 06 29 08
撤編日期  :2017 06 29 13
消散日期  :2017 07 02 02
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):20 kts
海平面最低氣壓1008 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
TD_97W_UNNAMED_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-8.9N-161.4E

79_90766_8cb8403afd721bf.jpg

以上資料來自:JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

強度是15kts.1010hpa,評價low  發表於 2017-6-23 08:59
這團雲之前有稍微注意到它,不過這個系統過去一直在消消漲漲的結構目前還不是很好。  發表於 2017-6-22 15:31

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-23 10:46 | 顯示全部樓層
陷於乾區以及一大堆乾空氣在前迎接它,發展好吃力
image.gif
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點評

alu
雲圖怎麼看菲律賓東方的雲團也比w97強  發表於 2017-6-23 20:44
目前我們東方海洋上的太平洋高壓很強盛所以洋面上空氣對流很乾燥,這樣的環境對熱帶擾動雲團而言簡直是身處地獄何況這隻還只是幼兒。  發表於 2017-6-23 15:56
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簽到天數: 2789 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-6-23 22:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N
153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
SUGGESTS A TROPICAL WAVE AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE POOR
ORGANIZATION AT THE SURFACE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


abpwsair.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 2789 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-6-24 15:49 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升至Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 153.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
180NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH INCREASED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. A RECENT 240001Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
PERSISTENT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WINDS AROUND THE LLCC WITH SOME 20 KNOT
WINDS LOCATED IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH 05 TO 10
KNOTS OF VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, BUT THE EFFECTS OF TUTT CELL JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ON
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TC
AFTER 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

97W_tracks_latest.png

vis-animated.gif

點評

我覺得要等颱風出現,再來注意!彭專家說的有理。  發表於 2017-6-24 21:39
強度20kts.1006hpa.評級medium.一路往西北,後期可能北上登陸韓國  發表於 2017-6-24 16:25
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簽到天數: 2789 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-6-25 09:46 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 146.2E TO 15.8N 141.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A 242032Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN

wp9717.gif

97W_gefs_latest.png
vis-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 1964 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-6-25 11:08 | 顯示全部樓層
wgmsdlm2.gif ohc_npQG3_latest_npac.zoomWP.gif wgmssht.gif


聯合颱風警報中心已對熱帶擾動97W發出TCFA熱帶氣旋形成警報,
過去幾天對流消長,沿著太平洋高氣壓邊緣移動,目前已經接近關島附近海域,


97W西北側有個高層冷心低壓活動,
帶來良好的高層輻散,但也因此造成垂直風切稍強,
目前來看,海水熱含量(OHC)雖然偏高,短時間適合發展,
但眼前更大的隱憂是高層的南亞高壓帶來的強垂直風切將限制後續發展,
整體來說,97W長遠要更進一步發展的機會並不高。


點評

它本身連現在要如何在強大高壓風切下持續生存下去恐怕都是個問題。  發表於 2017-6-25 14:49
目前東方洋面的大氣環境太乾燥了,太平洋高氣壓勢力正以極度誇張的型式在擴張西伸當中先別說它有甚麼未來展望之類的。  發表於 2017-6-25 14:47
目前東方洋面的大氣環境太乾燥了,太平洋高氣壓勢力正以極度誇張的型式在擴張西伸當中先別說它有甚麼未來展望之類的。  發表於 2017-6-25 14:47
強度20kts.1007hpa,不看好發展,評級very low  發表於 2017-6-25 13:31
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-26 08:52 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC取消了TCFA 了
wp972017.20170626005649.gif

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image.jpeg

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簽到天數: 2789 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-6-26 15:21 | 顯示全部樓層
06Z再降評Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY
237 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A FLARING AND FRAGMENTED CENTRAL CONVECTION
SHEARED EASTWARD OF THE LLC. THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. IN VIEW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

20170626.0610.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.14.6N.140.7E.100pc.jpg

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