開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

94E 中心裸露 機構不看好發展

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-7-3 02:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-7-7 05:58 編輯

  基本資料   
編號                : 94 E
擾動編號日期:201707 0302
撤編日期  :201707 0705
94E.INVEST.20kts-1010mb-11.6N-106.2W

20170702.1815.goes13.x.vis1km_high.94EINVEST.20kts-1010mb-116N-1062W.100pc.jpg

NHC : 20%
1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development of
this system is possible during the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward away from the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. two_pac_2d1 (4).png

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-7-3 06:56 | 顯示全部樓層
正渦度仍有槽的形狀,必須脫離了才更有利
image.jpeg
image.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-4 06:51 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升"MEDIUM"。
1. A broad area of low pressure is located about 650 miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Showers and
thunderstorms associated with the disturbance have increased in
coverage since yesterday, but the circulation remains elongated.
Additional development of this system is possible and a tropical
depression could form during the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_pac_2d1 (5).png rgb-animated (10).gif 94E_gefs_latest.png 94E_intensity_latest.png


點評

強度上看80kts.955hpa.給出very high  發表於 2017-7-4 23:45
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-7-4 08:23 | 顯示全部樓層
現時的北太平洋東部頗為活躍

image.png
image.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-5 02:39 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升70%,持續朝西移動。
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 500 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
This system still has the potential to become a tropical depression
during the next day or two before it moves westward into a less
favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png rgb-animated.gif


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-7-5 09:11 | 顯示全部樓層
提升至80%
image.png

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-6 05:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2017-7-6 06:44 編輯

NHC 展望降低至60%,海溫低,風切強,中心裸露,機構不看好發展。
1. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased during the past several
hours in association with a low pressure system located about 600
miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula.  This low is
beginning to move into less favorable environmental conditions, and
the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression are
decreasing.  The low is expected to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png rgb-animated.gif 94E_intensity_latest.png

點評

強度25kts.1008hpa.評級very low  發表於 2017-7-6 16:47
NHC 展望再降到30%...  發表於 2017-7-6 08:40
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表