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08E 後期因07E影響環境轉差 不再看好發展

簽到天數: 1970 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2017-7-16 21:04 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-7-24 22:16 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號:08 E
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 07 16 21
升格日期  :2017 07 18 20
撤編日期  :2017 07 24 13
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :30  kt
海平面最低氣壓 :1007 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  

98E.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11N.115W

20170716.1245.goes-15.ircolor.98E.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11N.115W.030pc.jpg

   NHC:20%   
2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers located about 800 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja peninsula are
associated with another broad area of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are only marginally conducive and any development should be
slow to occur as the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. two_pac_2d2.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-17 09:07 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至50%
2. An area of low pressure centered about 850 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja peninsula has become better defined
during the past day or so.  Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive, this system has the potential to become a
tropical depression during the next couple of days before upper-
level winds become unfavorable for development. The low is expected
to move slowly to the west or west-northwest during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
two_pac_2d2 (1).png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-17 21:52 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布"TCFA"
ep982017.17071700.gif

NHC 展望提升60%
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-7-18 17:08 | 顯示全部樓層
展望再提升,已達High。
1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms continue
to become better organized in association with a low pressure
system located about 750 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California.  Although upper-level winds are currently only
marginally conducive for development, only a small increase in the
organization of this system could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression at any time. This disturbance is expected to
move slowly westward or west-southwestward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-7-18 23:42 | 顯示全部樓層
升格08E。
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 181446
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located
well southwest of the Baja California peninsula developed closer to
the system's center overnight.  It has also produced convection for
more than 24 hours despite strong northwesterly shear.  Based on the
recent slight improvement in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of
2.0 and 2.5 from SAB and TAFB, advisories are initiated on a 30-kt
tropical depression.

A large upper-level low centered to its north-northwest is currently
imparting about 25-30 kt of shear over the system.  The shear is not
expected to lessen during the next day or two, and only slight
strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that
time.  After 72 hours, the upper-level wind pattern could become
less hostile which could allow for some strengthening if the
tropical cyclone survives the shear over the next couple of days.
The latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low confidence.

The depression has been moving slowly westward or west-
northwestward, but is expected to begin a slow southwestward motion
later today, which is due in part to the circulation of Tropical
Storm Greg to its east. Later in the forecast period, as Greg passes
to its north, the tropical cyclone should begin to move west-
northwestward at a faster forward speed.  An alternative
scenario shown by the GFS and UKMET models is for the depression to
weaken and be absorbed by the circulation of Greg in a few days.
Given the possible interaction of Greg, the confidence in the
track forecast is also quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.6N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  19/0000Z 14.6N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  19/1200Z 14.3N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  20/0000Z 13.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  20/1200Z 13.4N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  21/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  22/1200Z 13.3N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

145519_5day_cone_with_line.png

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-7-20 13:36 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 逐漸減弱 不看好命名。
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The depression has changed little in structure since the last
advisory.  Small bursts of convection have been pulsing near the
center of circulation, with a band extending to the southwest.  The
initial intensity remains 25 kt, mainly because there has been no
new data to suggest otherwise.

The initial motion is slowly west-southwestward, or 245/5 kt.  The
depression is expected to be steered around the western side of
Tropical Storm Greg's circulation during the next couple of days,
which will induce a slow southwestward to southward motion.  The
track models have locked into this scenario, and the new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Water vapor imagery continues to show the depression being blasted
by strong upper-level winds to the south of a large upper-level low,
which is resulting in about 15 kt of shear.  Although the cyclone
could escape some of this shear while it moves southward around
Greg, the damage will probably already be done by that point.
Since the convection is already losing organization, and the global
models show the cyclone's circulation being disrupted by Greg soon,
the depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 36
hours, if not sooner.  The remnant circulation should then
dissipate south or southeast of Greg by day 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 13.9N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  20/1200Z 13.4N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  21/0000Z 12.7N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  21/1200Z 12.0N 123.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  22/0000Z 11.9N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
023953_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png rbtop-animated (9).gif

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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-7-20 19:58 | 顯示全部樓層
風切仍然有利系統求生
image.jpeg

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[LV.7]常住居民III

mustang|2017-7-21 16:46 | 顯示全部樓層

08E Jtwc:FW

本帖最後由 mustang 於 2017-7-21 16:52 編輯

ep0817.gif ep201708_sat.jpg
Jtwc預測後期持續快速減弱消散。   Final Warning
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