NHC 逐漸減弱 不看好命名。|
WTPZ43 KNHC 200234
Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017
The depression has changed little in structure since the last
advisory. Small bursts of convection have been pulsing near the
center of circulation, with a band extending to the southwest. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt, mainly because there has been no
new data to suggest otherwise.
The initial motion is slowly west-southwestward, or 245/5 kt. The
depression is expected to be steered around the western side of
Tropical Storm Greg's circulation during the next couple of days,
which will induce a slow southwestward to southward motion. The
track models have locked into this scenario, and the new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one.
Water vapor imagery continues to show the depression being blasted
by strong upper-level winds to the south of a large upper-level low,
which is resulting in about 15 kt of shear. Although the cyclone
could escape some of this shear while it moves southward around
Greg, the damage will probably already be done by that point.
Since the convection is already losing organization, and the global
models show the cyclone's circulation being disrupted by Greg soon,
the depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 36
hours, if not sooner. The remnant circulation should then
dissipate south or southeast of Greg by day 3.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 13.9N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 13.4N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 11.9N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW