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98W 近換日線中緯度 副熱帶低壓

簽到天數: 2035 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2017-8-2 11:40 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2017-8-7 19:18 編輯

基本資料   
編號    :98 W
擾動編號日期:2017 08 02 11
撤編日期  :2017 08 05 13
98W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.22.8N.175E

20170802.0250.himawari-8.vis.98W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.22.8N.175E.100pc.jpg

點評

看數值預報,不管這隻能否成颱,未來就是會生出一大堆無害颱,整個季風槽大暴走壓制高壓  發表於 2017-8-2 13:42
這隻目前還沒有成颱跡象吧,誰說一定會成颱??...  發表於 2017-8-2 13:15
@juchu 無害颱???是指沒登陸的颱風嗎???  發表於 2017-8-2 12:53
無害颱即將大爆發,看是否能一口氣突破10個或甚至打破本世紀11個紀錄  發表於 2017-8-2 12:23

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15

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簽到天數: 2840 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-8-2 22:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
23.1N 175.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 020921Z AMSU-B METOP-A 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LLCC WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A PRIMARILY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS),
HOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET BY VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE
NEARBY TUTT CELL AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE. NVGM SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE MOVING TO THE NORTH WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION WHILE GFS SHOWS IT TRACK TO THE EAST,
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AROUND TAU 120 AND THEN TRACK TO
THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

98W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

08/05 06Z取消評級。  發表於 2017-8-5 13:41
往北緩慢移動,對東亞地區目前無影響。  發表於 2017-8-4 12:48
再過2到3天就要轉化了.巔峰約960hpa  發表於 2017-8-3 16:54
這是預報這東西能以TC身份登陸堪察加嗎  發表於 2017-8-3 16:34
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