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1715 珊瑚 大型季風低壓 打轉後快速北上並轉化

簽到天數: 1974 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2017-8-26 00:02 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:1715 ( 17 W )
名稱:珊瑚 ( Sanvu )
1715_SUOMINPP.jpg

  基本資料  
升格熱低日期:2017 08 27 08
擾動編號日期:2017 08 25 23
命名日期  :2017 08 28 14
停編日期  :2017 09 03 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):38 m/s ( 13 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :40 m/s ( 80 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):90 kts ( Cat.2 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:960 百帕
七級風半徑  :250 公里
十級風半徑  :100 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1715_珊瑚_SANVU_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  擾動編號資料  
99W.INVEST.15kts.993mb.13.2N.152.8E

20170825.1530.himawari-8.ir.99W.INVEST.15kts.993mb.13.2N.152.8E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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霧峰追風者|2017-8-26 05:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 19Z評級LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N 152.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING. A 251036Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
EDGE OF SWATH BROAD AND ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO
FORM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE NEAR 29
CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT INTO A BROAD TROPICAL STORM OR MONSOON DEPRESSION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TO LOW.
abpwsair (1).jpg


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jwpk9899|2017-8-26 14:43 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級MEDIUM
abpwsair.jpg
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 151.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 149.3E, APPROXIMATELY
285 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 252355Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC
WRAPPING AROUND TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A 252311Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Meow|2017-8-26 18:08 | 顯示全部樓層
ECMWF預報轉化後變成罕見初秋超強溫帶氣旋。
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_10.png

點評

沒依據  發表於 2017-8-26 20:22
不排除一路北上轉化,預估氣壓930hpa  發表於 2017-8-26 20:14
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霧峰追風者|2017-8-27 10:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-8-27 10:47 編輯

JMA 10時升格熱低壓,型態好轉。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 19N 149E WNW SLOWLY.
17082709.png 20170827.0200.himawari-8.ir.99W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.18.3N.147.7E.100pc.jpg


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霧峰追風者|2017-8-27 13:26 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-8-27 13:28 編輯

JTWC 06Z發布TCFA,整合發展中。
WTPN21 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 145.9E TO 23.9N 144.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
145.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY
425NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, EXPOSED CENTER. A 270418Z SSMI 85GHZ
PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 262339Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF 25
TO 30 KNOT EASTERLIES DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER, ALONG 22 TO
23N, AND AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES LOCATED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION (MD) IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SST (29-30C). DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PERIPHERAL WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS AS THE MD TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 280600Z.//
NNNN

wp992017.20170827050440.gif


點評

主要還是冷高壓一來就順勢爆掉然後到低緯取暖,九月初以前要有大物或侵台颱風應該都不可能了  發表於 2017-8-27 21:19
光是從形成的經度來說差很遠吧.....所以下禮拜太平洋高壓還是籠罩台灣啊 ~還是熱....  發表於 2017-8-27 19:15
快笑死,高壓不是很猛連壓兩個颱風去港澳,現在馬上爆掉  發表於 2017-8-27 17:33
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霧峰追風者|2017-8-27 16:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 發布GW
熱帯低気圧
平成29年08月27日16時25分 発表

<27日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 19度05分(19.1度)
東経 146度35分(146.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<28日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 19度30分(19.5度)
東経 145度00分(145.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
a-00 (1).png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-8-28 11:11 | 顯示全部樓層
熱帶系統.png

【準珊瑚即將形成,對台無影響】
位於關島北方的熱帶性低氣壓99W即將在未來24小時成為今年第15號颱風「珊瑚」。由於未來中太平洋高氣壓將略為減弱,且日本附近有低壓槽線東移,將會逐漸偏北轉東北進行,對台灣不會有影響,請大家放心。

未來幾天菲律賓附近依然會有其他擾動發展,可持續關注。

【高壓籠罩,晴朗高溫午後雨】
今天在太平洋高氣壓籠罩影響下,各地為晴朗高溫的天氣型態,但中南部午後有短暫雷陣雨的機會,請注意瞬間大雨、雷擊及強陣風出現。

週二(29)及週三(30)高壓勢力略北退,大低壓帶北抬,水氣增加,東半部及南部有短暫陣雨或雷雨的機會,其他地區則是午後雷陣雨的天氣型態。

----

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