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11L.Irma 橫颳大西洋 逐漸消亡

簽到天數: 136 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

Jimmy|2017-9-9 12:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Jimmy 於 2017-9-9 12:14 編輯
000
WTNT31 KNHC 090258
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...IRMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 77.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward on the east
coast of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west
coast of Florida to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west coast
of Florida to Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward on the west coast
of Florida to Suwanee River.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to Fernandina Beach and on the west coast of Florida to
Indian Pass.

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch for the
province of Matanzas to a Hurricane Warning.  A Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad
de la Habana.  The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for
Guantanamo have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia
County line
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, and Matanzas
* Central Bahamas and Ragged Island
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Fernandina Beach
* North and west of Anclote River to Indian Pass
* Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de
la Habana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 77.7 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma
will move near the north coast of Cuba through Saturday, near the
Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the southwest coast of
Florida Sunday afternoon.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is once again a category 5 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...2 to 4 ft
Anclote River to Suwannee River...3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are still occurring over portions of the
central Bahamas, as well as Ragged Island.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba through Saturday.  Hurricane conditions are
expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in
portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys
Saturday night and Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches
Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Jamaica...1 to 2 inches
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches
The Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible from Saturday midday into
Sunday across central and south Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
報文特別提醒佛州及古巴沿岸居民小心注意危險的風暴潮
重返C5(160mph)並登陸古巴卡馬圭群島 cmwMAXw01a.gif
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簽到天數: 12 天

[LV.3]偶爾看看II

ktf|2017-9-9 13:37 | 顯示全部樓層
25820_IRMA_170909_0000.WRave3_map.gif
危險半圓測的風場非常恐怖,範圍也大,這種北轉灌進去的不是開玩笑的

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簽到天數: 576 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

wangsj1968|2017-9-9 15:10 | 顯示全部樓層
登陸了!正在肆虐古巴,風速強且風場影響範圍大。

Irma!

Irma!

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簽到天數: 2790 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-9 15:41 | 顯示全部樓層
還真的貼著海岸線走...古巴難受了......
06Z維持140節評價。
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...EYE OF IRMA MOVING OVER THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

rb-animated.gif

NacComp200Km.gif
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簽到天數: 582 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-9 17:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2017-9-9 17:21 編輯


艾瑪的環境漸漸轉好 .
其實本身環境就不差 , 主要是中心貼著古巴走. 強度僅維持.

流出打開 、乾空氣少、 海溫夠、 OHC夠、 下墊面海溫夠

古巴雖然比台灣大 . 但是古巴地形幾乎平坦 . 這次影響古巴也比較嚴重
主要影響卡馬圭 、莫隆 、羅馬諾島
wg8wvirZ.GIF


2017AL11_16KMGWVP_201709090545.GIF


2017AL11_OHCNFCST_201709090000.GIF


at_sst_mm.gif


at_anom_mm.gif


古巴和波多黎各一樣 , 國內都是棒球強國為國球 .

古巴全國棒球聯賽也已經全面停打 . 全國警戒
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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-9-9 20:23 | 顯示全部樓層
沿著古巴北部沿岸前進,NHC最新一報強度降低至四級颶風下限115kt,預計明天下半天登陸佛州。 095407_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png rbtop-animated (28).gif

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簽到天數: 2790 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-9 23:28 | 顯示全部樓層
古巴陸地對系統影響仍舊存在,15Z根據實測調弱到C3,16Z將開始進行每小時定位,登陸點調西到佛州西部,預期登陸前還有小幅增強空間。
000
WTNT41 KNHC 091458
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

The interaction of Irma's circulation with Cuba has resulted in
some weakening of the hurricane.  Data from an Air Force plane
indicate that the maximum winds are now 110 kt.  However, once the
circulation moves away from Cuba, restrengthening is forecast and
Irma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane for the next 2
days while moving very near the Florida peninsula.

The eye has been moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 8
kt.  The hurricane is about the reach the southwestern portion of
the subtropical high, and the expected  turn to the northwest and
north-northwest should begin soon.  The track guidance is tightly
packed and takes the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or
over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of
the guidance envelope and given the good agreement among models, the
confidence in the track forecast is high.

Irma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly updates
will begin at 1600 UTC.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, bringing life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where a Hurricane
Watch has been issued.

3. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the
Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat
of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation and everyone
in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions
from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the
Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through
Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early
next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the
southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is
forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South
Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  Residents
throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood
threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 22.8N  79.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 23.4N  80.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 24.5N  81.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 26.4N  82.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 29.0N  82.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  12/1200Z 34.5N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  13/1200Z 36.0N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  14/1200Z 37.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

095407_5day_cone_with_line.png

recon_AF307-2611A-IRMA.png

recon_AF307-2611A-IRMA_timeseries.png

vis-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-10 01:46 | 顯示全部樓層
古巴謝戈德阿維拉省錄得71m/s陣風....
000
WTNT61 KNHC 091724 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Corrected format of summary section

...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ...

Earlier today there was a report from a weather station in Ciego
de Avila, Cuba, of a wind gust to 159 mph (256 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 80.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Mello/Brennan

NacComp200Km.gif

20170909.1626.gpm.89pct89h89v.11L.IRMA.115kts.941mb.22.7N.79.3W.055pc.jpg

LATEST.jpg

20170909.1715.goes-13.ircolor.11L.IRMA.115kts.941mb.22.7N.79.3W.100pc.jpg

點評

從登陸Miami改成Tampa, 這也差太多了吧?  發表於 2017-9-10 09:59

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +3 收起 理由
b997755 + 3 經過兩次置換,風場果然又擴大了,超過250k.

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