開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

15L.Maria 加速朝東北前進

簽到天數: 2759 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-19 13:04 | 顯示全部樓層
補充登陸報文
ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica
around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH
(260 KM/H).

The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory
package.

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

OUJEDJ0MJYY.jpg

TagBisat.jpg

09190045.gif

recon_AF303-0315A-MARIA.png

recon_AF303-0315A-MARIA_timeseries.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2759 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-19 17:33 | 顯示全部樓層
09Z正報評價135節,但在新一輪飛機實測第一次穿心之後,0910Z馬上加發更新報,直接調回140節。
000
WTNT45 KNHC 190853
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain
of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of
the hurricane.  Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about
135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength.
  Another Air Force
aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data
from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained
category 5 intensity.  Maria will be moving through a low-shear
atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next
couple of days.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the
early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events.
Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36
hours.  Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical
shear could cause some weakening.  The official intensity forecast
is near or above the latest model consensus.

After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the
initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt.
There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory package.  A weak ridge situated over the western
Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48
hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to
pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to
weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of
Hurricane Jose.  This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then
north-northwestward by day 4-5.  There is fairly good agreement
amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one.  This is generally near the
left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and
the corrected consensus predictions.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight
and Wednesday.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and
destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and
British  Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 16.0N  62.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
12H  19/1800Z 16.7N  63.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  20/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  20/1800Z 18.5N  66.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
48H  21/0600Z 19.3N  67.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  22/0600Z 21.2N  70.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  23/0600Z 23.7N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 26.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

085640_5day_cone_with_line.png

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

recon_AF305-0415A-MARIA.png

recon_AF305-0415A-MARIA_timeseries.png

GOES08452017262xwc7NN.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 582 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-19 17:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2017-9-19 17:44 編輯


recon_AF305-0415A-MARIA_timeseries (1).png

出海後最新的實測是933hPa , 強度開始重新加強
上到Cat.5後, 出海後短暫減弱Cat.4

未來繼續朝Cat.5發展
2017AL15_OHCNFCST_201709190600.GIF


莎莎如果沒有記錯的話 , 瓜德羅普 、馬丁尼克 、多米尼克 、聖克里斯多福及尼維斯、蒙哲獵等國家
從來沒有Cat.5颶風橫掃過的記錄.
而這次Cat.5的強度登陸多米尼克甚至是200年來史上首次.. 其他國家橫掃也是首次.
2017AL15_16KMGWVP_201709190545.GIF

一直以來都是渡假勝地的背風群島, 這個月內遭到兩個Cat.5 (艾瑪 & 瑪利亞) 侵襲.
滿怪的是近年全球不少有首次高強度登陸..包含索科特拉島、斐濟、塞席爾群島..等都是.
bandicam 2017-09-19 17-27-47-997.jpg

氣候變遷還是氣候暖化..我們都不得而知. (人類有衛星生活也才幾年而已)
bandicam 2017-09-19 15-47-45-375.jpg


上列可以看出環境一直很好.  潛熱 、水氣 、海溫都足夠

點評

夏商周朝熱 ,東周朝冷 漢朝熱 三國魏晉南北冷 唐朝熱 宋朝冷  發表於 2017-9-20 11:10
我也覺得暖化和颱風關係不大. 漢朝 唐朝比現代還熱, 明朝 清朝卻比較冷.  發表於 2017-9-20 11:03
暖化跟颱風數量和強度其實沒有直接關係,看西太今年的鳥樣就知道,而且四五十年的颱風數量比現在還多,今年可能也達不到平均值26  發表於 2017-9-20 08:55

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +30 收起 理由
開梅 + 30 感謝提供紀錄!

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3237 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

開梅|2017-9-19 20:09 | 顯示全部樓層
感謝提供紀錄!在整個北大西洋的衛星雲圖看來他很迷你,近看實力很不錯,有厄瑪颶風紀錄在前,目前他還是會讓我忽略的,就像2005年幾個五級颶風存在,同是五級之列的艾蜜莉颶風,就容易讓人忽略。
再繼續追看看她是否有更出彩的表現吧!
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2984 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2017-9-20 01:54 | 顯示全部樓層
21751414_2049452848402045_4924426563610942722_n.png

【四級颶風Maria:重創多米尼克】
今年的大西洋颶風季,又多了個災情慘重的犧牲者。
 
稍早Maria以五級颶風姿態,登陸加勒比海島國之一的多米尼克國(不是多明尼加),颶風中心直接輾過島嶼上空,當地災情損失極為慘重,首相不僅不斷在臉書呼救,獲救後甚至直言「損失程度已經非金錢可買回」。
 
由於多米尼克島上有1000公尺高山,Maria目前稍微減弱為四級颶風,預計後天Maria將重新增強回五級颶風,並在下一個目標:波多黎各登陸。

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-9-20 09:44 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 強度提升 150KT ,逐漸接近波多黎各。
235857_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png 20170920.0045.goes-13.ircolor.15L.MARIA.150kts.909mb.17N.64.3W.100pc.jpg rb-animated.gif

點評

颶風中心穿過波多黎東北端,非橫貫波多黎各,比之前預期好些。  發表於 2017-9-20 10:16
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-9-20 11:28 | 顯示全部樓層
9月19日背風群島颶風瑪莉亞接近巔峰並進逼波多黎各
Maria 2017-09-19 1742Z (gallery).jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 1742Z_(gallery).jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表