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15L.Maria 加速朝東北前進

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-21 02:18 | 顯示全部樓層
18Z根據飛機實測已判定中心出海,強度定在100節。
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS MARIA'S CENTER JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 66.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

180045_5day_cone_with_line.png

recon_AF305-0915A-MARIA.png

rgb0.gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-21 09:59 | 顯示全部樓層
以對角線穿越波多黎各可以說是大傷,00Z評價95節,氣壓不斷回升中
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 68.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

235427.png

recon_AF302-1115A-MARIA.png

持續重整,風眼又轉出來了
20170920.2308.f18.91pct91h91v.15L.MARIA.95kts.959mb.18.6N.67W.055pc.jpg

GOES01152017264Zfbm50.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

錯!應該是以實測風速女王2015年PATRICIA的標準為基底,量身訂做全球熱帶氣旋防風防震最強終極氣象雷達。  發表於 2017-9-22 00:08
以後業界標準測風雷達 皆以海燕為標準下去製作XD  發表於 2017-9-21 12:32
颱風形狀的風眼~  發表於 2017-9-21 11:43
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-21 14:40 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2017-9-21 15:03 編輯

有說法說這是85年來(1928颶風)登陸波多黎各第二強的颶風.

根據消息指出全島面臨了風暴潮的襲擊 ,  其中聖胡安的風暴潮甚至錄到了12米似乎被證實了
(遠高過海燕颱風的7米 、卡翠娜颶風的8米紀錄)

而另一地多拉多附近的Rio de la Plata河流據說還錄到24米  , 約79呎 (這是311大海嘯的級別).
還在查證. 但這個我覺得很誇張....懷疑故障.
ac60afc379310a55be1d63e3bc4543a982261045.jpg


全島造成100%斷電狀態, 也沒有辦法通訊網路 .. 當地目前夜晚,拯救相當困難。

但目前有部分畫面指出,可靠性似乎還滿高。




拍的地方是波多黎各島各地方風暴潮造成洪水
聖胡安、南卡羅來納、瓜依納沃、龐塞、瓜亞瑪、多拉多、Vega Baja、Orocovis、Cidia、Manati。





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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-21 18:21 | 顯示全部樓層
開出一個巨眼:o
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 19.6N  68.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  21/1800Z 20.5N  69.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  22/0600Z 21.6N  70.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  22/1800Z 22.9N  71.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  23/0600Z 24.3N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  24/0600Z 27.4N  72.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  25/0600Z 30.0N  72.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 32.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

085021_5day_cone_with_line.png

20170921.0601.gw1.89pct89h89v.15L.MARIA.100kts.959mb.19.4N.68.1W.82pc.jpg

GOES09452017264jfphIG.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-21 22:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2017-9-22 13:13 編輯

目前已經有多米尼克的空拍了

170920-hurricane-maria-dominica-se-440p_d4739e15735137f0af5af23ac220534d.nbcnews.jpg


f_cdemaaerial_170920.nbcnews-ux-1080-600.jpg


ss-170920-hurricane-maria-dominica-mn-1450_3411a256a6d773f66eb15a74389c69f3.nbcn.jpg


這是Cat.5 140Kts的風毀 , 算是滿嚴重的
(不過呢~如果你們有看過Irma的風毀 Cat.5 160Kts  其實瑪麗亞還不是最慘)


點評

Irma和Maria差在95%和70%房屋的毀滅程度.  發表於 2017-9-22 02:09
Cat.5 160kts以上就和電影災難片差不多了 所以Irma和Haiyan在陸地那個毀壞很可怕  發表於 2017-9-22 02:05
Haiyan的Cat.5 170Kts的風毀應該是傳說電影災難片中誇張無人道毀滅真實反映。  發表於 2017-9-22 00:12

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-22 13:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2017-9-22 19:21 編輯

bandicam 2017-09-21 22-38-30-614.jpg

bandicam 2017-09-21 22-38-39-003.jpg

DRONE_SURVEYS_CATANO_AREA_OUTSIDE_SAN_JUAN_WEB_1_1280x720_17168965566.jpg
bandicam 2017-09-21 22-38-59-740.jpg


1071445.jpg

_97952773_041862873.jpg
1071439.jpg


bandicam 2017-09-21 22-39-37-734.jpg


bandicam 2017-09-21 22-39-58-431.jpg


flooding-puerto-rico.jpg

19.jpg

bandicam 2017-09-22 12-58-41-835.jpg


bandicam 2017-09-22 12-58-47-421.jpg



波多黎各災情慘重 , 全島強風+洪水島上兩座雷達都被風吹走了 .
地面觀測站全部故障 . 全島沒有電

瑪麗亞颶風登陸時,在聖胡安引起了12.8米高的風暴潮(12米約40呎海嘯)
超越了之前卡翠娜颶風8米和海燕颱風6~7米的紀錄.  南部瓜亞瑪也有9米.
ciap4_hg.png
而據說風暴潮最高還錄到了24米(79呎....)的附近一個村落Toa Baja .  最新的影像也出來了 ,
一樓整個都淹沒了 . (24米約311大海嘯平均高度) 但沒被證實. 圖表是27呎 = 約8米

toap4_hg.png

nasp4_hg.png

聖胡安、南卡羅萊納、Guaynabo、Dorado、龐塞、瓜亞瑪、Toa Baja是暴洪比較嚴重的地方.
傷亡還在釐清.

全島停電有幾個地區甚至要半年都沒電可用.

另外多米尼克最新是14人死亡 . 90%房屋遭毀壞.





點評

更新. 單位記錯 最高是42呎 約13米  發表於 2017-9-22 19:22
看起來台灣真的是比較有本錢...但是這幾個IRMA MARIA都太兇了  發表於 2017-9-22 16:20

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-23 18:39 | 顯示全部樓層
仍是個C3,開始轉北進行,大概就複製Jose的路徑沿著西經72度附近北上。
000
WTNT45 KNHC 230853
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Maria is sending mixed signals regarding its intensity this
morning.  One one side, the 35 n mi wide eye has become better
defined in satellite imagery, and the last report from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the central
pressure had fallen to 952 mb.  On the other side, the
aircraft-reported winds decreased a little since the previous
advisory, with maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 110 kt and
maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave
Radiometer near 100 kt.  Based on the aircraft winds, the initial
intensity is lowered to 105 kt.  Various analyses show that Maria is
experiencing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear, which is likely the
reason for an asymmetric distribution of convection in the eyewall
at this time.

The hurricane is likely to stay over warm water in an environment
of light to moderate shear for the next 36-48 h.  The intensity
forecast during this time will show some fluctuations in strength,
with the forecast lying near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.  After 48 h, the forecast track takes Maria over the cold
sea surface temperatures left behind by former hurricane Jose,
which are below 26C in some areas.  This should cause a pronounced
weakening, and the new forecast is similar to the old forecast
in showing such a trend during this time.

The initial motion remains 345/8.  Maria is currently being steered
by a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the southeastern United States.  This
combination should cause a north-northwestward to northward motion
for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to
amplify toward the northwest due to the influence of a mid- to
upper-level ridge in the westerlies moving through the northeastern
United States.  The track guidance has responded to this evolution
by shifting westward since the last advisory, with several of the
global models now calling for Maria to come close enough to the
U. S. east coast to cause direct impacts before the system recurves
into the westerlies around 120 h. The latter part of the forecast
track is also shifted to the west, but it lies to the east of the
consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope.  If the
current model trends continue, additional westward adjustments to
the track forecast will be necessary later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of
the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf
and life-threatening rip currents for the next several days.

3. Maria will likely move between the east coast of the United
States and Bermuda by the middle of next week.  While the forecast
track has moved closer to the U. S. east coast, it is still too soon
to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these
areas.

4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in
the United States, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 24.8N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 26.0N  72.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 27.7N  72.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 29.2N  72.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 30.3N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  26/0600Z 32.0N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  27/0600Z 34.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 36.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

085915_5day_cone_with_line.png

20170923.0753.f15.85rgb.15L.MARIA.105kts.952mb.24.4N.71.9W.085pc.jpg

2017AL15_OHCNFCST_201709230600.GIF

GOES10152017266tMKMzS.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-25 00:56 | 顯示全部樓層


登陸波多黎各後,風切已經增強,加上艾瑪經過因素。環境不如以往,現在只剩Cat.2

recon_AF307-1915A-MARIA_timeseries.png


recon_AF307-1915A-MARIA.png


另外李也Cat.1了,今年大西洋颶風很強。

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