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16L.Nate 自密西西比州進入美國

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-10-4 02:32 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-12 07:52 編輯

  一級颶風  
編號:16 L
名稱:Nate
800px-Nate_2017-10-07_1848Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 10 04 02
命名日期  :2017 10 05 19
撤編日期  :2017 10 11 23
登陸地點  :尼加拉瓜
       美國 密西西比州 哈里森縣 比洛克西

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC):80 kts
海平面最低氣壓:983 毫巴

  過去路徑圖  
16L-Nate.png
  擾動編號資料  
90L-INVEST-25kts-1008mb-12N-81W

20171003.1815.goes-13.ir.90L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.12N.81W.100pc.jpg

NHC : 40%
1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.  Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

two_atl_2d1 (7).png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
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霧峰追風者|2017-10-4 17:07 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至70%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression within the next couple
of days.  The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward
across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and emerge over
the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system over the next few days.  An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d1 (8).png 20171004.0815.goes-13.ircolor.90L.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.11.8N.81.3W.100pc.jpg


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升格16L,強度25kts.1005hpa  發表於 2017-10-4 23:45
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霧峰追風者|2017-10-5 01:23 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z升格16L,逐漸增強北上,巔峰上看一級颶風,後期威脅美國佛州。
000
WTNT41 KNHC 041441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since
yesterday and is now a tropical depression.  GOES-16 one-minute
visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands
of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island.  The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite
classification, given recent microwave data.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
provide a better estimate.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression.  A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around
a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the
aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  As the trough moves away, a building
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system
to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf
states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to
the representation of the Florida Straits trough.  The GFS-based
guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras
tonight through Thursday.

2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for
the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 12.2N  81.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 12.7N  82.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 13.8N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  06/0000Z 15.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
48H  06/1200Z 17.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 23.5N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 29.0N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 34.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake
144324_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png avn-animated (5).gif


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霧峰追風者|2017-10-5 23:17 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 12Z命名“Nate”,在稍早也正式登陸尼加拉瓜,預測進入墨西哥灣強度達到巔峰,並影響美國南岸。
000
WTNT41 KNHC 051447
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Tropical Depression Sixteen
increased in organization after the last advisory, with the
formation of a ragged central convective feature and outer banding
in the northeastern semicircle.  In addition, data from the
Colombian radar at San Andres showed a partial eyewall, and surface
observations from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, included a pressure of
1001 mb outside of the center.  Based on these data, the initial
intensity has been increased to 35 kt, and the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.

The center of Nate is now inland over northeastern Nicaragua, and
little change in strength is expected until the center moves over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  After that, a combination of warm
sea surface temperatures and light shear should allow for at least
steady strengthening.  However, the guidance is producing mixed
signals despite a favorable-looking environment.  The Rapid
Intensification Index of the SHIPS model is showing high chances of
rapid intensification, with better than a 50 percent chance of 25
kt of strengthening in the next 24 h and nearly a 50 percent chance
of 65 kt of strengthening in 72 h.  On the other side, the GFS and
Canadian models show only modest development and keep the cyclone
as a tropical storm until it reaches the northern Gulf coast.
Given the environment, the intensity forecast leans towards the high
end of the guidance envelope and calls for Nate to become a
hurricane in about 48 h and reach the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane.

The initial motion is 325/8.  A combination of a large cyclonic gyre
over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward
across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward
with an increase in forward speed during the next 72 h.  While the
guidance is in better agreement on the direction that Nate should
move, there remains disagreement on the speed despite an overall
trend toward a faster motion.  The new forecast track is similar to
the direction of the previous track, but shows a faster forward
speed that has the center near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
in about 36 h and near the northern Gulf Coast in about 72 h.
After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its remnants are expected to
recurve northeastward upon encountering the mid-latitude
westerlies.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct
impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm
warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this
area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as
a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing.  However, it is too early
to specify the exact timing, location, or magnitude of these
impacts.  Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any
advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 14.3N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
12H  06/0000Z 15.6N  84.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  85.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H  07/0000Z 20.8N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 23.7N  88.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 29.5N  89.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 36.0N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 41.5N  76.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

145426_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png rgb-animated.gif avn-animated.gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-10-7 09:14 | 顯示全部樓層
22310292_1558070880925053_6457711654943880660_n.png 22196052_1558069014258573_1062306068612677317_n.jpg

即將進入墨西哥灣,強度逐漸增強,
預計登陸前可達一級颶風規模
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霧峰追風者|2017-10-7 15:40 | 顯示全部樓層
稍早略過墨西哥東南部,NHC 強度升一級颶風,預計明後天以巔峰侵襲美國。 032801_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png 20171007.0645.goes-13.ircolor.16L.NATE.70kts.987mb.23.6N.86.6W.100pc.jpg rgb-animated (16).gif rbtop-animated (21).gif



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霧峰追風者|2017-10-8 10:03 | 顯示全部樓層
即將登陸密西西比州。
211753_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png avn-animated (6).gif

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t02436|2017-10-8 13:05 | 顯示全部樓層
看樣子登陸了,06Z應該就會更新登陸消息。
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 29.9N  89.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 32.1N  88.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
24H  09/0000Z 35.7N  85.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  09/1200Z 39.3N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  10/0000Z 42.1N  73.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

031530_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

GOES04372017281LtSCeP.jpg

Nate_7-8Oct17_southmissvly.gif

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新聞台將它的中文名字翻譯成『内特』說...  發表於 2017-10-8 15:10
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