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91E 中心裸露

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2017-10-14 02:45 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-10-18 02:43 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :91 E

擾動編號日期:2017 10 14 02
撤編日期  :2017 10 17 23
91E-INVEST-15kts-1009mb-13.5N-108W

20171013.1745.goes-13.ir.91E.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.13.5N.108W.100pc.jpg

NHC : 50%
1. The surface circulation of a nearly stationary low pressure system
centered about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better defined over the past few
hours, however, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized.  Some additional development of this system is
possible through the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form while it begins moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-14 15:22 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至70%。
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a low pressure area centered about
750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Additional development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the next day or two while the
system moves toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d1 (1).png 20171014.0701.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.91EINVEST.25kts-1007mb-118N-1116W.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2017-10-16 11:10 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望降低至60%
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad low
pressure area located about 750 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less
organized this afternoon.  This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward or northwestward into less conducive
environmental conditions on Monday, and the chance of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_pac_2d1 (2).png rgb-animated.gif


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霧峰追風者|2017-10-17 08:39 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望再降低至30%,中心裸露
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about a thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become significantly less organized since
this morning due to very strong upper-level winds.  In addition,
the low has moved over colder waters, and development of this system
is becoming less likely while it moves northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
two_pac_2d1 (3).png rgb-animated (1).gif

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