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91W 對流消散

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2017-11-19 23:35 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :91 W
擾動編號日期:2017 11 19 22
撤編日期  :2017 11 20 21
91W.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-5.0N-163.0E

20171119.1500.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.91WINVEST.15kts-1006mb-50N-1630E.100pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-20 04:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 19Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191707Z 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS AN OBSCURE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION DISORGANIZED AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER. A
191056Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH THE HEAVY CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
REVEAL FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, 5-10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND 28-30C SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (8).jpg 20171119.2000.himawari-8.ircolor.91W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6.1N.161.6E.100pc.jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-20 09:59 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 01Z評級提升MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 158.8E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 191948Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOSELY ORGANIZING AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. (LLCC). A 192138Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
EDGE OF SWATH ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND
A REGION OF QUALITY FLAGGED 30-35 KNOT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, UNDERNEATH A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REVEAL FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, 5-10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND 28-30C SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsair (9).jpg 20171120.0120.himawari-8.ircolor.91W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.5.2N.158.8E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-20 14:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-20 14:31 編輯

JTWC 05Z評級降低LOW...
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 158.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 117
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL TURNING WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200421Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. A
192333Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WIND BARBS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

abpwsair (10).jpg 91W_gefs_latest.png 20171120.0550.himawari-8.ircolor.91W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.5.2N.159.5E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-20 22:28 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 13Z取消評級,NRL也撤編了...
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N
159.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair (11).jpg

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